Stuck in a rut through Wednesday

Today will be a near copy of yesterday. The best weather will be during the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in during the afternoon and evening as moisture in South Carolina rides north along an upper-level boundary.

We will be located on the western fringe of the boundary so the majority of today’s activity should stay east of our area. Still, with a good bit of moisture available and not much air movement upstairs, slow-moving cells could produce locally heavy rainfall. Cloud cover will limit the potential for strong thunderstorms.

Hi-res futurecast through 1:00 AM Wednesday:

Otherwise, it will be another warm and muggy day here in the Valley. Afternoon temperatures will get to 83/85 degree range and depend on how quickly clouds can invade. With dew points in the low 70s it will feel pretty muggy and humid this afternoon.

Despite the spotty showers and storms this past week dryness continues to spread across the area. So far for the month we’re running slightly over an inch short of where we should be. We could definitely use a good soaker at this point.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Showers and storms will decrease overnight tonight with the loss of daytime heating. A weak cold front will approach and cross east-central Ohio on Wednesday. Showers and some thunder will accompany the frontal boundary as it cuts through the region. The better odds for precipitation will occur during the first half of the day, decreasing as we get into the late afternoon.

Thursday finds the area between frontal boundaries and should bring us a decent summer day. This first front will not bring much of a temperature change on Thursday but dew points should come down a few clicks. Afternoon highs should again reach the mid 80s under a mix of sun and clouds.

A second reinforcing cold front pushes through on Friday. There is some disagreement between modelling on the timing but most recent runs lean toward a morning crossing. That would bring the better odds for a few showers for the first part of the day with clearing underway for the afternoon and evening.

Cold front number-two does have slightly cooler air behind it – enough to knock temperatures back for the weekend. Dew points will also take a hit behind the front as drier air moves in over the region.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
If you are not real fond of summertime warmth, this weekend will be perfect for you. Below average temperatures and very comfortable humidity should dominate the weekend weather. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday should top out just shy of 80 degrees. A little warmer on Sunday with highs near 81.

Saturday will be the brightest day of the weekend. We’ll see clouds increase Sunday ahead of the next weather system that will bring increasing chances for showers Sunday night into Monday.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
No severe weather is expected Tuesday of Wednesday. I will continue to monitor Thursday for any severe potential with the cold front.

LONGER RANGE
There just isn’t much of a signal for sustained summertime heat in the long range outlook. It could very well be that we’ve seen the last 90-degree weather – for a while, anyway. While it isn’t out of the question that we see a few warmer than average days in the weeks ahead, the general trend is for below average temperatures as we finish out July.

Of course, we reach our warm peak for the year in July. Although August temperatures can often be quite hot as well, August does initiate a slow decline in average daytime highs. After August, it’s all downhill.

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