Welcome to October. Except it probably won’t feel much like October this week.
And, a very happy birthday to the National Weather Service. On October 1st, 1890, The weather service is first identified as a civilian agency when Congress, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, passes an act transferring the meteorological responsibilities of the Signal Service to the newly-created U.S. Weather Bureau in the Dept of Agriculture. The Weather Bureau later becomes the National Weather Service we know today.
A nearly stationary warm front along the southern shore of Lake Erie this morning will sink south a bit today and any rain associated with it should stay north of the Valley. About the only effect on our weather will be clouds. Look for another dry afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday afternoon with most neighborhoods reaching 76/78 degrees.
A weak cold front will approach east-central Ohio tonight. As the front inches closer we will need to bring in a low chance for a shower overnight. A band of weak instability and moisture ahead of the front as well as strong shear aloft will support a brief but limited threat for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
[Next paragraph edited at 1:30 PM for SPC Monday afternoon update] The Storm Prediction Center has the Tuscarawas Valley highlighted in a marginal risk category with their Monday afternoon update. Areas just to our east – including the northeastern portion of Carroll County – have been upgraded to a slight risk. Cloud cover limiting daytime heating to the mid-70s and thus instability will help limit thunderstorm strength. Still, we can expect likely rain showers tomorrow as well as gusty thunderstorms mainly in the mid-afternoon through early evening time frame.
Rain and storms will end tomorrow night. The cold front will only make it to central Ohio tomorrow night before it reverses course and heads back north as a warm front on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain quite warm and roughly 8 or so degrees above average. Most of the area will approach 80 degrees for the afternoon high.
Wednesday looks mainly dry depending on how far north the front travels. For today, kept a low chance for a shower in the forecast.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
Odds for showers and storms will ramp up again on Thursday with the next cold front. Some sun might be around in the morning ahead of the front so temperatures will again be unseasonably warm.
Crisp autumn temperatures stay on hold through the weekend. Our cold front lifts northward once gain on Friday keeping the region in the warm sector and keeping our afternoon temperatures in the 80-degree range through the upcoming weekend.
Rain chances will be dependent on weak disturbances riding along an upper-level ridge of high pressure. While a washout is unlikely, a shower or two would be possible at just about any location at times.
I briefly discussed the possibilities that the NWS Climate Prediction Center would likely change their October outlooks based on new data from the climate models. Indeed, that has happened. The CPC now projects warmer than average temperatures for the month to continue.
Precipitation is forecast to be about to just above average for the month.