Dry weather with below average temperatures will continue until late in the week. Warmer temperatures and chances for rain will return to end the work week.
Clouds moved in from the north early this morning due to a thin warm layer in the upper levels. There is not much air movement up there so those clouds will likely stick around through the daytime hours. The result will be far less sun than I originally thought last night.
With less sunshine than expected, temperatures will be cooler today as well. I do think upper-level flow will pick up some tonight and still think that we’ll see a good deal of sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure remains the dominant weather factor for the region and it will ensure dry weather through late week. Temperatures will stay colder than average but we will see a gradual warming trend through the week.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
Inconsistencies between models and individual model runs make it difficult to nail down much in the late week specifics. But, there is a general trend toward bringing precipitation back to the east-central Ohio region to finish the work week.
There is some agreement that upper-level low pressure will develop over the Plains on Wednesday then shift east into the Great Lakes region by Thursday. As the low moves east, the area of high pressure that has kept the area dry over the last several days will exit east. That will allow surface low pressure to move into the Ohio Valley.
Odds for precipitation will gradually increase Thursday night as the low approaches the region and rain will become likely on Friday. Temperatures should warm to the mid-40s, so we won’t need to be concerned with snow.
There are differences regarding timing as well. The European model is faster shifting the low east on Saturday. The GFS, however, presents a slower solution which would keep likely rain chances into Saturday. I’ve kind of split the difference with the forecast today and kept moderate odds for rain in Saturday’s outlook.
The low looks to shift east as high pressure begins to build on Sunday to bring dry conditions back to the region.
LONG RANGE THOUGHTS
Generally speaking, a pattern of milder temperatures looks to set up over the next week or so across the region. The way colder than average temperatures we’ve been having should relax a little. We will have a few bumps move through of course, but precipitation associated with any of these will be mainly rain.
I’ve already had a few questions regarding Christmas. Historically, snow on Christmas here in the Valley has a fairly bad record. Given the signals for a warmer temperature pattern and lack of sustained cold, our odds for a White Christmas may be less than average.
Nothing is impossible and computer models are not always right. But I have to say that odds for snow around Christmas look pretty low from the data I see today.