Weather Edge for Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Sunnier today with temperatures warming to just above freezing. Tonight brings a weak front and slight chances for a light snow shower. Dry weather then continues through Thursday.

The stubborn thin cloud deck that has kept dry but dreary conditions will begin to slowly thin this morning. We should see increasing sunshine through the afternoon before clouds start moving back in tonight as a weak cold front approaches. Temperatures will also warm a bit more and we will actually get above freezing for the afternoon high.

An area of weak high pressure will drag a poor excuse for a cold front across east-central Ohio tonight. There is not much in the way of moisture with it but I can’t rule out a light snow shower in spots. The opportunity for light snow is brief and focus mainly along the frontal boundary. Accumulation shouldn’t amount to much more than a coating and not much of an impact locally.

The front will quickly exit east by sunrise Wednesday. Cloud cover will once again thin out allowing for a decent amount of sun in the afternoon. Despite the weak front, temperatures will continue a slight warming trend into the 37° range.

There is a bit of disagreement with modeling regarding a disturbance riding through Wednesday night. I’ve included low odds for a bit of snow as the disturbance moves through. We will have some fairly dry air in place and it would be a challenge for anything significant to develop. Like tonight, the window of opportunity is brief, so don’t expect much with this one either.

Thursday looks like another dry day with a weak warm front lifting through. There will be less sun and more cloudiness, but also an uptick in temperatures. Highs should get to 40°/42° across the region.

Odds for precipitation will begin to ramp up on Friday as low pressure crosses the Great Lakes region. There remain some differences between the models pertaining to timing and track of this system, so I don’t have very much confidence in the weekend forecast. For today, though, showers look to be a pretty good bet by Friday afternoon. Rain will continue into Saturday morning and finally taper off to scattered showers in the afternoon as the low shifts into New England.

Sunday looks like the better day of the weekend. Clouds should break and allow for occasional sunshine. Temperatures will warm to mid-40-ish. Again, model discrepancies keep confidence in the weekend forecast lower than normal.

Ensemble forecasts continue to point to a warmer temperature trend over the next two weeks. Actually, two spikes of above average temperatures are possible through this period.

The long-range pattern then shifts to a colder trend near Christmas, but I still think snow for Christmas is really a long shot.


4 thoughts on “Weather Edge for Tuesday, December 11, 2018”

  1. Thank you so much for your accurate local forecast. Really appreciate the work that you devote to reporting the weather for the Tuscarawas Valley.

  2. I really like reading your daily posts. Your forecast wording is thorough. I also enjoy your occasional humorous comments.

    Merry Christmas!!!

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