Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening across the Valley with a cold front.
Our weather will become active today as a strong storm system makes its way into the Great Lakes region. An area of showers on the radar this morning will continue to push east, weakening as it travels into east-central Ohio. We could see a brief shower this morning out of this as it pushes through the area.
Our focus then turns to this afternoon and late this evening as a cold front approaches and crosses east-central Ohio. Warm moist air from the south will move into the region today. Temperatures across the Valley will be the warmest of the year so far and most neighborhoods will reach afternoon highs around 70° or so.
South winds will also pick up this afternoon in advance of the front and it will turn breezy with occasional gusts reaching the 30 mph range later today.
There is a question regarding the amount of clearing we will get into this afternoon. This will have an impact on how gusty winds can get later today and also how strong thunderstorms will be late this evening.
Attention then turns to later this evening as a cold front moves east across the region. The biggest question for later today will be is storms this afternoon in western Ohio can maintain their strength as they travel east this evening. More sun and less cloudiness today will lead to higher instability tonight and thus, a higher potential for strong thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the area of strong storms a bit farther east with today’s outlook. While soundings maintain a greater threat for severe storms today in western Ohio, the threat here is much lower – not zero, but lower.
The primary threat for our area is straight line wind damage but an isolated tornado or two is also possible – especially if we end up getting a decent dose of sun today.
TIMING
Most of the daylight hours will be fairly uneventful today. The highest threat for strong to severe thunderstorms here in the Valley will be after 8:00 PM this evening. The line of thunderstorms should push east of our area by midnight. Future Radar from the hi-res model through 1:00 AM Friday:
The main line of thunderstorms should push east of the Valley around 1:00 AM.
THREATS
Strong damaging wind gusts are the main threat this evening. The threat for isolated tornadoes is very low, but a tornado can’t be ruled out. WInd is by far the larger threat.
I’ll post updates here and on our social media pages through the day if any changes to the forecast develop.
