Timing Tonight’s Rain Chances

Wednesday will bring another beauty of a day to the Valley. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to the upper 70s and with dry air overhead, the humidity will be low as well. Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of the next weather system that will spread showers into the Valley tonight.

If you have outdoor plans today or heading out to the Tuscarawas County Farmer’s Market at the fairgrounds, you’ll have no issues with rain through sunset this evening.

Since the air is so dry (as indicated by the low dew points), timing the onset of rain is a little difficult. Moisture must first overcome this dry air before rain can reach the surface. Once the dry air moistens up though, the rain will cover a good portion of east-central Ohio by early Thursday morning.

We may see a break in the steady rain Thursday morning as a mid-level dry slot moves through, but this will be short-lived as moisture flows back into the region with the system’s cold front. Odds for showers and thunderstorms will ramp back up with the cold front by lunchtime Thursday.

There is not much of a severe storm threat with this on Thursday. Cold winds aloft will be rather gusty and a passing thunderstorm could tap into some of those gusty winds and pull them down to the surface. Gusty winds and small hail will be a good possibility but with a lack of sufficient instability, the odds for wind and hail reaching severe criteria are pretty low. Still, the threat for a strong gusty storm will small to moderate hail can’t be ruled out.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms will taper off and end Thursday evening with the passage of the front. High pressure will build over east-central Ohio to bring the sunshine and dry weather back to the Valley for Friday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler – low 70s in the afternoon – and low humidity.

Not that we need it but we can expect another quarter to a half inch of additional rain through Thursday evening with this system.

Unfortunately, our wet weather pattern will continue into the weekend as the next system spreads showers and thunderstorms into the region on Saturday. I don’t expect an all-day rain on Saturday but scattered showers will be possible just about anytime. Rain will be more likely Saturday night and Sunday with a frontal boundary hanging around.




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