Friday 06/14 Weather Update – Weekend Rain Raises Flooding Concerns

Today will bring what seems like an unusual day to the Valley. It will be dry and sunny – something that’s rare this month. Temperatures will be a pleasant low-70s this afternoon with low humidity. Clouds will be hard to come by until fair weather clouds move in this afternoon.

Enjoy today. Unfortunately, more showers and possibly a few storms will move through the east-central Ohio region through the weekend.

If you have outdoor activities or yard work to get in, other than today, Saturday morning will be your best bet. I think we should stay dry this evening and Saturday morning. It will be cloudier tomorrow morning but scattered showers chances will increase in the afternoon. I don’t think it’s a washout, but hit-or-miss showers will be possible in the afternoon. Rain will become more likely late Saturday evening and Saturday night.

While temperatures will be warmer tomorrow and most neighborhoods will get to around 73° / 75°, it will be breezy and mostly cloudy – especially during the afternoon.

Father’s Day will be the day when we have a better opportunity for widespread and numerous showers and storms. A frontal boundary will stall out somewhere in northern Ohio on Sunday. There is plenty of moisture associated with this so the odds will be much higher for multiple rounds of wet weather.

Although there is not a big severe threat on Sunday, thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty wind. Rain could be briefly heavy at times Saturday night through Sunday. If you have a barbeque or a cookout planned on Sunday with dad, plan on at least off-and-on showers and storms through the day. Wind out of the southwest could gust to around 20 mph at times. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday but it will turn muggier Sunday.

That hung up front is likely to stick around through Monday. As long as this boundary sticks around, showers and thunder will remain in the forecast – meaning, Sunday’s rain will probably stick around through Sunday night and into Monday.

While there is not a threat for severe thunderstorms over the weekend into Monday, multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms will accumulate over the period raising concerns for flooding. The National Weather Service is anticipating 2 – possibly 3 inches of rain for our area through Monday evening.

This isn’t going to come all at once, but it will be spread out over a 72 hour period. The ground is already fairly saturated from rain and storms this past week, so it isn’t going to take much more to start causing problems. If you live in an area that floods you’ll need to monitor this as we go through the weekend.

Projections from the GFS Ensemble model keeps the Tusky just below minor flood stage but I’ll continue to monitor future model runs to see if that pattern continues.

This wet weather pattern doesn’t look to end soon, either. The NWS Climate Prediction Center keeps the odds for above-normal precipitation going through the end of the month. It doesn’t look good for any long stretches of dry weather for the next couple of weeks.



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