Today will bring one more hot and humid day. It should be the last one we will need to deal with. Relief is on the way with a cold front that will slowly sink south through Ohio today. It will be a slow process, though. And, it will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms to the Valley this afternoon and evening.
A couple of the ingredients for severe storms will be present, but not all that impressive. Instability is certainly high enough and there is plenty of moisture. Upper-level shear is a bit lame, though. Thunderstorms later today will be scattered about, but any of them could produce hefty downbursts – enough to cause wind damage. The Storm Prediction Center has all of central Ohio highlighted in the Marginal Risk category (1/5) for severe thunderstorms.
The biggest severe threats from today’s storms will come from strong winds. With dewpoints in the 70s, there is a lot of moisture to tap into, so downpours will be a thing. These will be slow-movers, too so tropical downpours could cause some flash flooding.
While a renegade shower or storm can’t be ruled out anytime this morning, the main threat for thunderstorms won’t arrive until later this afternoon and evening. Simulated radar through 1:00 AM Monday:
That cold front will eventually hang up just to our south tonight and remain stuck in the vicinity through Monday. Low pressure will develop in central Ohio on Monday, then ride east along the boundary. Rain will likely keep it pretty wet in the Valley tomorrow with showers most of the day. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible but the best instability for stronger storms is south of us.
Monday will still be a bit humid, but with the amount of cloud cover and rain around, temperatures will be a lot cooler.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
That frontal boundary finally gets pushed south and east Monday night. The rain will end northwest to southeast. Then, cooler and drier air will begin to spread across east-central Ohio. On Tuesday we’ll see decreasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and much less humidity.
Seasonal and even slightly below average temperatures are expected through much of next week. High-pressure overhead will bring sunshine and fair weather to the Valley. Temperatures and the humidity will start to come up as we head toward the end of the work week and next weekend. High pressure will slide off to the east coast and a more southerly flow sets up. But, it looks as if conditions should remain dry for the period.