An Active Weather Pattern Sets Up for Midweek

Sunshine and lower humidity yet today but we will see an uptick in temperatures and humidity through Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday brings a threat for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures and humidity will increase for the latter part of the week and persist into next weekend.

Today will bring one more pleasant late summer day to the Valley. Temperatures will warm up a couple/three degrees better than yesterday as high pressure shifts east and sets up a more southeasterly flow. The humidity should stay in check yet today but we will start to notice an increase in moisture as that more humid air moves in from the south.

Dry conditions will continue tonight night. Skies will be cloudier tonight than past nights so overnight lows will be closer to average.

It also looks like Monday will be dry but we will begin to notice an increase in clouds during the second half of the day. A cold front is approaching the Great Lakes region slated for a late day Tuesday arrival in the Valley.

After several days of milder temperatures and low humidity, Monday will have a more summerlike feel. Temperatures will increase to the upper 80s and dew points will also be on the upswing ahead of the front. There are model timing differences regarding the onset of showers and storms associated with this next system. And, depending on the timing, we could be looking at some strong storms to boot.

Simulated radar projection from the NAM for 7:00 AM Tuesday morning. Heavy rain and strong storms are a possibility with the approach and crossing of strong low pressure and a cold front.

We will also be keeping an eye on the potential for flooding as these storms will be capable of taping into a good deal of moisture. Right now it’s a little early and confidence – mainly because of the differences in timing – is a bit low to raise any red flags. I’ll continue to monitor the SPC and local NWS offices for guidance. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potential are higher than the severe storm threat through Tuesday.

By Wednesday the boundary is forecast to be far enough east and south of the Valley to dry things out. Temperatures one again will ball back to the low 80s for the daytime high Wednesday and Thursday.

The biggest weather feature that will impact the Valley late in the week will be the gradual increase in temperatures and humidity. Summer isn’t quite over yet and next weekend may bring the hottest and most humid weather we’ve seen locally since July.

By Saturday, afternoon temperatures look to climb into the mid/upper 80s. Dew points in the mid-60 on Saturday won’t be too horrible, but those will increase to the upper 60s by Sunday. This combination will bring our old friend the heat index up to the mid 90s on Sunday.

I think the temperature trend outlined by the European is a little too high, but the general idea of hotter temperatures over next weekend and early next week is valid.



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