An upper-level disturbance and a cold front will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. A few storms may be strong and produce heavy rainfall. Daily chances for afternoon storms will continue through the week and temperatures will remain near or above the seasonal average.
Although the rain was not quite as heavy as I expected, some neighborhoods did manage to get briefly moderate to heavy rain this morning. My rain gauge registered 0.80 inches of rain at TuscWeather headquarters located just a few miles south of New Phila. The heaviest rain occurred in southern parts of the region closer to I-70.
The bulk of heavier rain has shifted off to the east of the Valley and will continue this trend through the rest of the day. Clouds will dominate through most of the afternoon but some clearing looks to move into east-central Ohio late in the afternoon.
The weak boundary and low pressure associated with all of the rain will sink south through the region today. While it looks to remain mainly dry through the afternoon, a spotty shower or thunderstorm will remain a possibility until the front clears the region later today.
This morning’s rain and the lack of appreciable sun will keep temperatures on the cool side with afternoon highs just shy of 80°. The lack of sunshine will also keep any instability in check, so the risk of severe weather will be very low. A lot of moisture still remains for showers/storms to tap into, so anything that develops could bring a brief downpour.
Odds for showers will decrease this evening and tonight as the system moves south of the region. Leftover moisture will hang around through Wednesday and we’ll need to keep a slight chance for a spotty shower in the forecast. Generally speaking, though, tomorrow will be mainly dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the low 80s.
Thursday looks like a carbon copy of Wednesday. An upper-level disturbance will ripple through the region in the afternoon but with scant moisture to work with, will only keep a slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm. Otherwise, expect some sunshine intermixed with clouds and temperatures peaking in the low 80s once again.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
Confidence in the late week and weekend forecast is not very good given the model differences. Dry weather and sunshine will return for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will be close to average but will become noticeably warmer on Saturday.
Small disturbances in the upper levels Sunday and Sunday night could bring back the threat for a shower or storm. Otherwise, Sunday will be warm with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s.
The 6 to 10 day outlook shows a warm trend developing over the weekend and sticking around. Temperatures look to remain above average next week in Ohio.