Tuscarawas Valley Weather Update 03/15/2020

Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure. Periodic rain chances will then return for the rest of the workweek as a series of disturbances move through east-central Ohio.

Clouds early this evening will thin and skies over the Valley will remain mostly clear overnight as high pressure over eastern Canada. Fair skies will continue into Monday morning but I do expect clouds will build back in Monday afternoon as moisture from the south pushes in with a warm front. We will need to bring scattered light rain chances back into the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region.

High pressure will return on Wednesday to bring dry conditions back to the Valley through most of Wednesday.

Temperatures locally through the period will run in the low 50s for daytime highs Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will launch into a warming trend on Wednesday that will dominate our weather pattern through the rest of the workweek.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Upper-level circulation associated with a low pressure system in the southwest and high pressure in the northeast will work together to enhance the low-level jet over the central US. The result will be an influx of warm Gulf air and moisture into eastern Ohio during this period.

Temperatures in the mid-50s locally on Wednesday will be the coolest for the latter part of the week. By Friday we will be taking our first run at a potential 70-degree day.

Unfortunately, along with all of that warm air will come a decent amount of moisture as well. A low pressure system will develop over Colorado and the central Great Plains on Wednesday/Thursday and move northeast into the Great Lakes region for Thursday night and Friday. Although models are suggesting that this is going to be a stronger system compared to ones earlier in the week, models are not consistent on key features including timing, strength, and track.

GFS MODEL DEPICTION Friday afternoon: Cold front will bring showers and possible thunderstorms to east-central Ohio. Colder temperatures will then settle in for the weekend.

The European has followed a similar trend from prior model runs with an elongated surface low spanning across the northeastern US and it slowly moves to the northeast. The GFS continues to model a much stronger low that moves quicker, but the most recent model run has shifted its track to just northwest of the area. Both model setups for this system indicate there will be rain with this system at the end of the week, the biggest question outside of the basic synoptic location is whether the area will see thunderstorms or not.

I currently have included thunder in the forecast for Friday afternoon as warming temperatures near the surface and a potentially strong cold front and other strong forcing components could result in enough forcing to allow for some thunderstorms. This system will continue to have to be monitored as it is still an evolving system with much uncertainty remaining in the forecast.

BIG TEMP CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND
Friday’s cold front will be a game-changer for the weekend temperatures. We could quite possibly see a high at or near 70° before the front sweeps through. Temperatures will chill to freezing or near freezing Friday night behind the front. And daytime highs will return to the 40s for Saturday and Sunday.

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