After a spectacular sunny spring day yesterday, Sunday will not be quite as nice in the Valley. Clouds will dominate today thanks to a weak frontal boundary sliding south through east-central Ohio today. A sprinkle or light shower is possible in just about any location today but any precipitation you might get will be brief. No one should see anything more than a few hundredths of an inch at best.
Clouds and shower chances will quickly exit this evening as high pressure returns to the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the clouds around and a northerly breeze. We stay dry tonight with nighttime low cooling off to around 33°/34° by sunrise.
Monday looks like another very pleasant spring day with high pressure supplying the mostly clear skies and sunshine. Unfortunately, it also looks like the last really nice day we’ll have for a while. After a chilly start, temperatures will quickly warm to the mid-60s in all locations in the Valley by early afternoon.
UNSETTLED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
The area of high pressure that brings us a nice day Monday will shift east and allow a warm front to lift through east-central Ohio Monday night. We will start to see clouds increase locally Monday evening as the front approaches but with such a dry atmosphere in place, rain is likely to hold off until after midnight,
Eventually, moisture will be enough to overcome the dry air at the surface by sunrise Tuesday with rain becoming likely. There is just enough instability present to allow for some thunder but strong thunderstorms are not likely – yet.
As the front lifts north of the Valley Tuesday afternoon, conditions will favor the potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development in eastern Ohio. It is still a little uncertain how much of an impact the morning rain and cloud cover will have on instability, but it is clear that at least a low potential for hail and gusty wind will be present over east-central Ohio. A weak cold front moving through late Tuesday night will once again provide a spark to ignite thunderstorms. Some of these could be strong as well with hail and gusty wind.
The SPC has our area highlighted in the Marginal (low) Risk category for severe storms on Tuesday but future updates will need to be watched as the higher potential could easily shift east into our area.
Rainfall could also be an issue Tuesday through Wednesday. Current model projections bring anywhere between 0.75″ and 1.50″ of rain through the period. Training of thunderstorms in any one location could push these total higher.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
The mid-week storm system will usher in a much cooler pattern change that will persist through next weekend and into early next week. Below normal temperatures are likely through this period. several disturbances will ride through eastern Ohio bringing chances for precipitation. conditions can even support snow showers in northern portions of the state.