An update to Wednesday’s severe weather threat

Posted Tuesday, June 2, 2020 2:45 PM EDT

The potential for severe thunderstorms in our area on Wednesday remains in place. The highest risk for severe thunderstorms locally will be Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

DETAILS
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday evening in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and travel southeast into Michigan tonight. The storms are then forecast to track through Lake Erie southeast into northern Ohio early Wednesday morning. There is still some uncertainty on how far south Wednesday morning thunderstorms will travel through northeast Ohio before crossing into western Pennsylvania.

There is a low chance that a few storms in northeast Ohio could be strong to severe. For now, I’ve not included showers and thunderstorms for the Valley for tomorrow morning. This could change depending on how far south Wednesday morning showers and storms can manage to get.

Wednesday will then turn warm and humid in the Valley ahead of a cold front. This will bring an increased threat for severe thunderstorms to our area in the afternoon that will continue into Wednesday night. There are still model differences in the configuration and intensity of the storms as well as the exact timing. However, it appears that a line of thunderstorms will develop and move from north to south late in the day tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center has most of Ohio – including all of east-central Ohio – highlighted in the Slight Risk (level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5) category for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

At this point, all severe modes are in play – Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, abundant moisture and slow storm movement will bring an increased threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Because tomorrow’s storms are likely to be slow-movers, the threat for thunderstorms, some severe, will continue into Wednesday night. Timing issues will come into better focus with later model runs.

REST OF THE WEEK
Conditions will remain favorable for periodic showers and thunderstorms to impact the Valley through Friday. Fair weather will return to the area for the weekend with a stretch of sunny weather in place through Tuesday of next week. Temperatures locally will average warmer than normal through much of the period.

Wednesday will be a day where you will need to pay attention to the weather in your area – especially during the mid-afternoon through the evening time period. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings. I will post an update here on the TuscWeather.net website and the app Wednesday morning – hopefully with . You can also get local weather updates in real time on the TuscWeather Twitter (@tuscwx) feed.

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