Posted 06/09/2020 8:52 AM
Sunny and hot will be the norm for today in the Valley. Temperatures this afternoon locally will reach the low-90s and dew points will be in the upper-60 to near 70°. So, it will feel a bit uncomfortable as well. High cirrus clouds from the remnant low of what was once Cristobol will also increase as we get through the day. By this evening sun locally will be hazy and filtered.
Our record high today at New Philadelphia is 93° set in 1999. I don’t think we will get quite that warm at the airport this afternoon but 92° is not out of reach. Some of our nearby locations might see their records broken today, though.
As for today’s details, tropical moisture and warm air from Cristobol will migrate north today. As the remnant of Cristobol travels north into the western Great Lakes tonight we will start to see chances for showers increase as we get toward sunrise Wednesday. Most activity tonight should keep to our south but I introduced a slight chance of a renegade shower creeping into the area tonight. It will be a warm muggy night with temperatures staying in the mid-70s.
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TOMORROW
Another very warm and humid day is in store for the Valley tomorrow (Wednesday). While temperatures locally will be a few clicks cooler, dew points will continue to push upward into the upper-60s to low-70s. That combination of warm moist air and building instability through the day will provide the fuel for thunderstorms. All we need is a spark and that will be provided by an approaching cold front Wednesday evening.
[UPDATE 2:00 PM 06/09/2020] As I suspected, the SPC has upgraded north-central Ohio to Enhanced Risk Level#3 on a scale of 1 to 5) for tomorrow with their Tuesday afternoon update. This is an important indicator for our area that confidence continues to increase for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.
There will be plenty of ingredients necessary for severe storms – sufficient instability, upper-level shear, moisture. All modes of severe weather will be in play – damaging wind gusts, large hail, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and, yes, a few tornadoes.
INITIAL LOCAL TIMING
The atmosphere looks to remain capped through the morning and early afternoon due to a warm upper layer. This cap should erode during the afternoon and that will allow air parcels to rise leading to the development of thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front. This line of thunderstorms is then expected to travel east-southeast through Ohio late in the afternoon through the evening. The line of storms can arrive in our area around 10 pm or later. We will have a much better idea tomorrow morning when we can expect severe weather locally.
NAM3k (North American Hi-Res Model) idea of what the radar might look like at 10:00 PM Wednesday night:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
Cooler and drier air will flow over the region Wednesday night and Thursday behind the front. Those uncomfortable dew points will come down and temperatures will be knocked back to the upper-70s for Thursday’s high. Another reinforcing cold front on Friday will keep temperatures locally in the upper-70s as well. High pressure will result in sunny and pleasant weather for the Valley.
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