Weekend rain update and a look at the pattern shift for next week

Posted 8:35 AM Friday, 08/14/2020
Last Edited 1:06 PM

We reached 94° for the high yesterday adding to our total of 90-degree days in the Valley for the year. It also ties our record for August 13 set in 1988. It also adds to our total of 90-degree days for the summer of 2020.

Clouds today (Friday) will help keep the odds for reaching 90° slimmer but it will be close. It will still be a warm day. I have 88 for the afternoon high and, depending on whether we get any substantial sun, I can’t rule out a 90° reading in some neighborhoods. I also can’t 100-percent rule out a spotty shower or thunder late in the afternoon and this evening toward sunset. Odds clearly favor staying dry and it’s a small chance. But, there can be a brief spotty shower locally late in the day. Otherwise, it’ll be another warm and muggy day with dew points this afternoon in the mid-60s.

Today’s simulated radar from the hi-res model:

Since the modeling was so undecided on the weekend rain chances, I promised an update on the weekend forecast. So let’s talk about that.

There is still some disagreement in the different models but it does appear that we will be dealing with rain at times over the weekend – especially on Saturday. The trend with the latest model runs has been the low pressure system tracking just a little farther south than earlier runs.

Chances for showers will gradually increase through the morning. Showers, and maybe some thunder, will become likely over the area in the afternoon as the low travels east across the lower Ohio Valley.

We can assume that chances for spotty showers will continue locally Saturday night as the low track toward the Carolina Coast. The system will drag a cold front through the state late in the day Sunday. Scattered showers can be expected ahead and along the front Sunday afternoon.

Odds for showers and storms associated with the cold front will decrease once the front pushes east of the area Sunday evening.

The weekend will be cooler temperature-wise. Highs on Saturday will top out in the upper-70s. I expect a bit more sun on Sunday so highs should reach 80°/82°. It’s going to feel a little muggy, though, with dew points in the mid-60s both days.

It’s late summer. Many folks have outdoor plans and activities planned over the weekend despite the pandemic. The prospects for rain over the weekend is something most of us aren’t happy with. But, it’s been very dry lately and we do really need the rain. We may pick up about a half-inch to an inch of needed rain through Monday morning.

Modeling of this system has been very inconsistent and questions remain about the placement and track of the heaviest rainfall. As it stands today, the heaviest rain looks to occur south of us. Flood Watches have been posted for southeastern Ohio counties this afternoon.

The cold front on Sunday will bring us some really glorious weather for next week. Much drier air behind the front will sweep the humidity away. Dew points locally will dip to the very pleasant 50s for much of the week. Temperatures will actually become COOLER than average for a change. If you’re one who dislikes the heat and humidity of summer, you’re going to love this.

For those who do not know, normal high temps for this time of the year in the Valley are 82°/83°. It’s likely we see at least a couple of days with afternoon highs in the upper-70s. Once the weekend rain gets out of the area Sunday night, mainly dry weather will return under high pressure. And, it’s likely to remain fairly dry until rain chances return to the forecast for next weekend.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.

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