Light snow showers continue on Monday; Next system brings mixed precipitation back to the Valley late in the week

Posted 9:30 AM Monday, February 1, 2021

Our winter storm is playing out pretty much as planned. The center of low pressure responsible for the messy weather over the last 48 hours is currently centered over Cambridge just to our south this morning. Light snow showers will continue rotating around the low as it travels eastward today.

As our storm inches closer to the mid-Atlantic Coast, energy from it will transfer to a coastal storm currently located along the Outer Banks. The result will end up being a Nor’easter for the northeast coast and New England.

Expect to see additional light snow showers today as our system slowly makes its way eastward. I suspect most areas in the Valley will end up with an additional 1″ to 2″ today before snow tapers off tonight. As the low transfers energy to the east coast low a more northerly or northwest flow will set up by Tuesday morning.

The flow of colder air over the Great Lakes then jump-starts lake effect snow bands Tuesday. Some of these lake effect bands may bring occasional snow showers to the area mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be similar to those of the weekend. Afternoon highs generally in the low-30s and nighttime lows in the low to mid-20s.

Dry weather and perhaps sunshine on Wednesday with the area between systems and high pressure in control. A decent shot of cold air will be associated with this and temperatures Wednesday night will likely dip to the low teens under a mostly cloudless sky.

The next storm system advances out of the Mississippi Valley pushing a warm front into eastern Ohio. While temperatures Thursday morning start out in the low teens warmer air will bring highs in the upper-30s late in the afternoon with a southerly flow ahead of system.

The GFS depiction of our next storm system moving in from the Mississippi Valley Thursday night into Friday. While there are differences in the modeling for this next system, we can expect periods of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation at times.

Lots of uncertainties exist with this next storm but initially precipitation may start as snow if it gets underway early enough before changing to rain late in the day Thursday. Today’s guidance leans toward precipitation staying rain or perhaps a rain/snow mix overnight. Temperatures look borderline at this point.

The system will drag a strong cold front across the region sometime during the morning on Friday. There remains a lot of model disagreement on the timing of this feature. Gusty wind is likely Friday afternoon as temperatures plummet behind the front. Any AM liquid precipitation will change over to snow.

Dry air behind the front will limit snow accumulation to minor amounts locally. Some of the coldest air of the season is likely behind the front over the weekend and into early next week.



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