Snow likely tonight and Thursday; Ice and sleet are not expected

Posted 9:00 AM Wednesday, February 17, 2021

First, a huge thank you to all the folks who left kind and supportive comments on social media and here on the blog. Your support and understanding made my day. It only proves to me that while there are a few trolls and haters out there, there are many more kind and understanding folks. Proof that the Tuscarawas Valley is not only a great place to live but the people who live here are the best in the world. I can’t think of a better place to be.

A very cold start this morning across the Valley with many area locations reporting temperatures just above 0° to 5°. A combination of fewer clouds to act as a blanket and hold in warm air and the fresh snowpack allowed for the coldest of the season so far.

Today will be, relatively speaking, a decent day. We should continue to see some sunshine this morning under high pressure. Expect afternoon temperatures in the low-20s. We will stay snow-free as well. Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening as our next storm system approaches from the south. This system will return accumulating snowfall to east-central Ohio for Thursday.

THURSDAY’S WINTER STORM
There are some important differences with this storm compared to Monday’s – the low pressure center has maintained a more easterly trend with the most recent model runs. That would bring a weaker storm to our area and one less capable of pushing warm mid-level air northward. The odds are much much lower that we see sleet and freezing rain with this one.

GFS MODEL depiction for Thursday early afternoon

Any shift of the low pressure center to the west would introduce an increase in the potential for mixed precipitation. Notice that there have been no NWS weather headlines issued for the region up to this point. That’s a pretty good indication that this won’t be a high-impact storm. All of the weather headlines so far have been issued for counties south of I-70.

TIMING
We will have no issues today. Chances for snow will increase well after sunset this evening becoming likely after 3:00/4:00 AM Thursday. Snow showers are likely during the Thursday morning commute and they will likely continue with varying intensity through the day. Snowfall rates can be moderate to heavy at times especially during the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday.

Temperatures locally on Thursday will warm to around freezing so snow will likely be on the wetter side.

Snow showers continue through midnight Thursday night and slowly decrease through early Friday morning as the low shifts to the northeast. Colder air flowing in behind the system will keep the threat for scattered snow showers through Friday afternoon and evening before snow exits the region Friday night.

LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS
Since the low pressure center has shifted east snow amounts for our area will also be limited. It won’t be a big snow producer but it will still produce enough snow to impact your day as well as roads and travel. Snow totals will vary. Amounts on the lower end of the scale in the NW increasing as you travel southeast.

Temperatures locally will be in the low/mid 20s Thursday morning. That’s cold enough for snow to stick easily. Once temperatures warm to the upper-20s to low-30s in the afternoon the snow will be wetter. Travel impacts will be higher for the morning commute Thursday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Cold arctic air will flow in behind our late week storm Temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will once again fall to the single digits. Saturday will be a cold day with highs in the low-20s.

A warming trend will get underway on Sunday and it looks like we will finally start to thaw out through next week.

The next system will impact the region Sunday night through Monday. Temperature profiles with this system may be warm enough to support rain or a rain/snow mix. Details will come into focus later in the week and over the weekend.

As always, keep it here and on Twitter for updates. Be safe out there.

10 thoughts on “Snow likely tonight and Thursday; Ice and sleet are not expected”

  1. Thanks, Joe. You are my go to for weather in the valley. You look out for all of us and I appreciate that so much. (Glad to hear possibility of ice is low. Hoping that holds true. I would rather have had the snow than the ice. Still have lots.) Keep safe and warm.

  2. My husband and I were discussing how accurate your forecasts for Dover are. You specifically said that we were on the border of snow/freezing rain and we were! Thanks for all the time you spend keeping us informed.

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