Warmer temperatures on Sunday will be accompanied by wet snow showers Sunday night

Posted Saturday, February 20, 2021

Other than cold temperatures, today will bring a decent day to the Valley. We will need to keep a slight chance for light snow/flurries in the forecast through the morning with a crossing disturbance to the north. Otherwise, expect a brighter afternoon with some filtered sunshine. Temperatures will remain in the mid-20s.

We’ll have one more unseasonably cold night to get through tonight. Temperatures overnight will depend highly on how much cloud cover we see. Locally, we will likely get down to around 10° or so at most locations. Should clouds then out and allow for substantial clearing, temperatures will drop a handful of degrees lower.

NWS PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT

A southeasterly flow will set up on Sunday with an approaching upper-level trough. With somewhat warmer air pumping in, temperatures tomorrow will rebound into the mid/upper 30s after a chilly morning start. Sunday will be the first day in two weeks that we’ll warm substantially above freezing.

Expect some sun mainly in the morning before clouds start increasing through the afternoon and evening as that upper level trough advances east.

Wet snow showers are likely overnight Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures will likely hover at or just above freezing during the early morning so it will likely get pretty sloppy. A quick inch or two of wet snow is possible in the Valley through Monday morning.

EUROPEAN MODEL Sunday night – early Monday morning

A transition to light rain/drizzle and/or a period of rain/snow mix may occur through the daytime hours before precipitation comes to an end Monday evening.

As for the Monday morning commute, the main roads will likely be slushy and wet. There can be some sloppy wet snow accumulation on the less-traveled secondary roads.

TUESDAY – FRIDAY
The midrange computer guidance continues to point to a generally dry period and warmer temperatures. A mainly west-east flow will allow temperatures to warm to the low-40s on Tuesday – upper-40s by Wednesday.

GFS MODEL Wednesday night

The only bump comes Wednesday night as a weak cold front moves through. This may spark light rain/snow showers but for now, I’ll keep the forecast dry. Drier and somewhat cooler air will bring an end to the 40-degree temperatures Thursday and Friday. Still, afternoon highs will likely hover in the upper-30s so, comparatively, no so bad. High pressure will at least bring fair weather and sunshine.

LONG RANGE TRENDS
Model ensemble forecast trends have been fairly bullish on a warm regime through the end of February and the start of March. I’m apprehensive. While most model trends lean warmer, I think they’re a little overdone. Be that as it may, warmer conditions look favorable and anything above 40° after this long cold period is okay with me.

The mainly zonal flow – that is west to east – flow will bring the potential for storminess as well.

Have a great weekend. I’ll see you back here on Monday. Be safe out there.

 

 

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