Posted Wednesday AM, April 28, 2021
This morning’s discussion will focus primarily on the changes to the forecast regarding the showers and thunderstorms we’re expecting later today. Temperatures locally remained warm overnight and it feels more like a mid-June morning in the Valley this morning. Dew points at 8:00 AM are already in the low to mid-50s and it feels just a touch humid out there.
Dew points will push into the low to mid-60s as we get toward the afternoon. This more humid air will be one of the ingredients for showers and storms developing today. As the atmosphere gets juicer it also will become more buoyant allowing air parcels to rise and increase the amount of instability.
All that’s needed to get thunderstorms going today is a trigger. That will be supplied by an upper-level disturbance that pushes through eastern Ohio. The concern today isn’t so much from organized thunderstorms but individual discrete cells that will be scattered about.
I still think that other than a renegade shower popping up, we will stay mostly dry through much of today. Cloud cover will help us out and keep temperatures this afternoon from getting crazy. Any clearing that might occur that would allow for sunshine would supply more heat (energy) and thus increase the threat for severe storms.
The morning outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has the higher threat for severe storms just to our north and east. The area of increased risk is uncomfortably close to New Philadelphia. Any appreciable sunshine today could bring that area of higher concern a little further south and west.
The main concerns today is from damaging wind gusts. Hail is also possible given the buoyancy of the atmosphere. There is also a low threat of tornadoes.
A 2-percent tornado risk is not a big deal but it does show that the threat for tornadoes is not zero. Any tornado risk gets my attention. Wind and hail are the main threats but we also need to keep that low tornado threat in mind as well.
While the overall threat for severe storms today is not too impressive, remain aware later this afternoon and this evening. There is the potential for strong thunderstorms. Have redundant methods of receiving warnings – particularly if you have outdoor activities after school/work today.
The timing hasn’t changed much. Showers and in particular, thunderstorms, will be more likely early this evening.
Of course, all of this doesn’t guarantee that we will see severe weather here. It simply means severe weather is possible and you should pay attention to changing conditions later today. Remember that clouds will be our friend today and will be the limiting factor with today’s severe setup.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday but we’re expecting more of a widespread rain event for tomorrow. It’s fairly dry so we could use a good soaking about now. We may end up getting an inch to an inch-and-a-quarter of rain today through Friday morning.
As always, updates will be posted throughout the day here on TUSCWeather and I also post the latest local weather info on Twitter (@tuscwx). Be safe out there.