Posted Friday AM, June 18, 2021
An area of showers and thunderstorms from activity in the west is currently entering northwestern Ohio this morning. These will continue traveling east and south across the state weakening as they progress. They will eventually spread rain, and maybe some thunder, into east-central Ohio late in the morning or early this afternoon. There is no severe weather expected with the first batch of precipitation this morning.
We will see a break in the showers and storms during the bulk of the afternoon. Skies may even clear enough to allow for intermittent sunshine. The air will become noticeably more humid as moisture streams in from the south. Thunderstorms will redevelop to our west as instability increases during the afternoon.
However, much of the activity that develops later will depend on whether the atmosphere can destabilize enough during the afternoon. If we manage to get much sunshine all of the ingredients for severe thunderstorm development will be in place. The Storm Prediction Center has made very few changes in the severe outlook this morning and we remain under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 on a scale of 1-5) for severe thunderstorms this evening.
The main threats with evening storms in order are:
- Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater
- Large hail 1-inch or greater
- Isolated tornadoes
The strong straight-line wind is by far the biggest concern. Wind is wind. You don’t need a tornado to cause wind problems. Non-tornadic winds of this magnitude can cause power outages and tree damage. Secure outdoor items you would like to keep.
The timing of the period of the highest potential for severe storms in OUR area is between 7:00 PM through midnight. Storms can still develop after midnight and overnight. These will have the potential of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern.
The potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue into Saturday. The severe storm threat is considerably less tomorrow but a strong/severe storm can’t be ruled out.
Remain weather aware today and especially this evening and tonight. Updates and significant forecast changes will be posted here. I’ll also have updates on Twitter (@tuscwx) through the day as additional info streams in.