Posted Monday, September 20, 2021
Dry and warm weather is expected on Monday under a ridge of high pressure. Rain chances will increase through mid-week with an incoming cold front. Cooler temperatures will arrive to end the week.
For all the folks in the Tuscarawas Valley anxiously awaiting to cooler weather of autumn, you have to get through today yet. Cooler temperatures and low humidity will arrive this week but it will come with a cost. Rain. Maybe lots of rain. Here’s how things look to play out in the Valley this week:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
No changes yet. It will stay warm and humid yet today. We’ll be between two upper-level systems which will bring increasingly warm and humid air into east-central Ohio. This setup will lead to a cloudier day on Monday along with above-normal temperatures. A disturbance will move through during the afternoon and this could bring an isolated shower or storm to the area. But, anything that does happen to pop up will be brief. Odds for sprinkles in any one area are pretty low – 20%/30%.
After a warm and uneventful night, we’ll start to see an increase in activity on Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase through the day Tuesday as an upper-level trough of low pressure shifts east out of the Plains. The threat for any strong storms looks fairly lame due to a lack of instability. Still, a few rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Chances for widespread rain will increase Tuesday night as a potent cold front approaches from the northwest. Lack of any substantial instability, as well as a lack of appreciable daytime heating, will keep the threat of a strong thunderstorm low. Still, any storm could bring high wind gusts.
Ample amounts of moisture, however, will bring the potential for periods of heavy rainfall on Wednesday.
The models have not quite nailed down the timing of the heaviest rain and how quickly the front clears east of the area. These factors will play an important role in the total amount of rain we might get and whether or not we need to worry about flooding problems.
As of today, there is the potential for a lot of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday. This could bring high water issues in some areas. The ground is pretty dry so runoff might be a problem. Again, this will depend highly on rainfall intensity and duration.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be highest before lunchtime then decrease during the afternoon. That cooling trend will continue Wednesday night and by Thursday morning we’ll be in the mid-50s.
Rain chances will decrease on Thursday as the system advances southeast and cooler/dryer air wraps in behind. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler locally by as much as 20-degrees compared to today. Highs on Thursday won’t get much higher than the low-60s and nighttime lows will dip to the mid-40s. We’ve not seen temperatures this cool in the Valley since mid-June.
High pressure will build over the region and bring us a very pleasant fall day on Friday with daytime highs in the upper-60s.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK
High pressure looks to maintain a dry weekend with cooler than normal temperatures.
Will today be the last 80-degree day we see for the season? Maybe, but I highly doubt it. We often see at least one day in October where it reaches 80° or better. And, our long-range climate models are leaning towards warmer than average temperatures next month.
I could have predicted the weather this week a year (5, 10, 30?). It’s fair week. Always rains.