Midday Saturday Winter Storm Update

Posted Saturday, January 15, 2022

It’s a quiet weather day in the Valley today and our weather will remain uneventful through the rest of the day through Sunday morning. We do have an impactful winter storm knocking on our door that will bring moderate winter weather impacts to the area Sunday night and Monday.

Let’s get up to speed with the latest info…

The beginnings of our winter storm are currently over the Mississippi Valley. Those who have access to radar apps can find it fairly easily off to our west. The storm will continue a southerly track today before it shifts to a northeasterly track tonight.

As of early Saturday afternoon, all of eastern Ohio is under a Winter Storm Watch. I think the Watch will be expanded a bit north and west at some point today. Look for Stark, Summit, Wayne, and Holmes counties to be added to the Watch later today.

I also expect to see some of these Watch areas be upgraded to a Warning late today or tonight.

BREAKING: We’ve been upgraded to a Winter Storm WARNING.

Sunday will actually start out as a fairly nice winter day Sunday morning. It will be chilly for sure but we should see a bright sunny start to the day. As things stand this afternoon, Sunday should be relatively trouble-free. Don’t be fooled. Clouds will gradually increase during the afternoon as the storm system travels northward along the southeast coast.

By 3:00/4:00 Sunday afternoon we may start to see some light snow creeping in from the south. By 6:00/7:00 it’s going to be snowing at a pretty good clip.

NAM3k Simulated Radar projection at 7:00 PM Sunday. Darker blues = heavier snowfall.

Snow will continue to spread north. Once it gets underway Sunday evening it will likely snow for most of the night and into Monday morning. Snow should taper off and be pretty much over with by lunchtime Monday. Random light snow showers and flurries can still continue at times through Monday afternoon and evening.

Modeling has been fairly consistent with recent runs that bring in a layer of warm air at around the 5,000 foot level. Should this actually pan out, we could expect a couple/few hours of sleet (ice pellets) mixing in around 10:00 PM or so timeframe. At this time I’d give the odds for sleet mixing in at about 40%.

The snow will be wet and heavy to start but gradually get fluffier as temperatures cool off through the night.

Overnight and early morning model solutions have shifted the center of low pressure a little to the west. In response, I tend to agree with the NWS map with regard to snow amounts. Notice the SLIGHT increase in heavier snow amounts has shifted a bit west as well.

Locally, I expect a general 6″ to 9″ before it’s all said and done. Snow amounts can vary greatly from one location to the next. As I’ve been saying all along, don’t focus too much on the numbers. Whether we end up actually getting 6-inches or 10-inches the impacts are the same. You’re going to shovel or plow snow. The roads are going to be a mess for a while. And, it’s going to be tough getting around Sunday night and Monday morning.

It’s going to thump snow for a while Sunday night. Even if we end up getting some sleet, I don’t think it will seriously affect the total amount of snow that much. It will make shoveling it Monday morning a lot tougher, though.

We’ve not received a thumping of snow such as this for quite some time. Be prepared to make some adjustments to your plans. Look for more updates here on the website and web app. You can also follow me on Twitter (@tuscwx) for the latest forecasts and news.

Be safe out there.



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