Monday Morning Winter Storm Update

Posted Monday AM, January 31, 2022

The weather system that eventually will become a winter storm in our area later in the week made it ashore early this morning. It’s now in the Pacific Northwest and over land where we can sample it and gather more reliable data. And, we can begin to get a much better feel on how the storm might play out and impact our area.

We’ll have no weather issues in the next couple of days. Temperatures locally will actually warm to above freezing today. Tuesday will approach the mid-40s for the afternoon high. Both today and Tuesday will feature sunshine and dry weather.

The system shown above will travel east dragging a cold front. Along the way, it will tap into some Gulf moisture Tuesday and Wednesday. Weather problems probably won’t start locally until around midday Wednesday. We will start out on the warm side with all of the really cold air well to our north. Expect rain to start things off during the latter part of Wednesday.

Our area should remain in the warm sector overnight and into Thursday morning. If this holds rain will likely be the main precipitation type through this period. That colder air to the north will, however, start sinking south and east by Thursday morning. Places in western and northern Ohio will already start seeing some frozen precipitation moving in by sunrise Thursday.

As Thursday progresses that cold air is going to continue sliding south and east eventually reaching our area at some point. Any rain we might be seeing in the morning will change to something other than liquid. That ‘other’ could be sleet, wet snow, and freezing rain. Or maybe even some sort of combination. The heavy snow will stay in northwestern and extreme northern Ohio at this point. Our problem here will be ice.

That colder air will continue sinking south and east during the nighttime hours cooling the column overhead. We’ll see a changeover to snow showers at some point late Thursday night with snow possibly continuing into Friday morning.

The storm will also be winding down and pulling away on Friday and the amount of moisture left is still something we don’t have a handle on yet. It could be a little. It could be a lot. It’s still a question that doesn’t have an answer yet.

Temperatures Friday morning will likely cool to the 20s so anything wet will freeze. Even if we end up with little snow Friday, it could still be more of an ice problem.

WHAT TO TAKE AWAY FROM ALL OF THIS
If you base your implications of winter weather based solely on snow amounts, you may be misled. While the amount of snow is still unknown, it’s only one part of this storm. The bigger issue in our area MIGHT be ice. With ice, we not only have travel concerns but also the potential for power outages.

And, we can’t discount the fact that rain is likely to be a factor when this thing gets underway. That additional rain, coupled with the snow that’s on the ground already, could bring some flooding issues as well.

• I’ve tried to outline a general scenario of how this week’s storm might play out. It’s not gospel.
• We don’t have a handle on ice or snow amounts yet.
• Plan on our area getting some amount of both.
• Hazardous travel conditions may exist Thursday through Friday
• Trends will shift.
• Timing and other details will become more refined in the next 24 – 48 hours.
• Forecasts will change.

This was kind of long so thanks for hanging in there. You can also follow me on Twitter (@tuscwx) for updates or better yet just check TUSCWeather now and then. You can install the web-app on your phone or other devices. It works with just about any type or brand – even tablets.

Be safe out there.

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