Posted Wednesday AM, February 23, 2022
A storm system will bring the potential for another round of wintry weather to the Valley Thursday and Friday. While details are a bit sketchy yet, we do know that all modes of wintry precipitation are in play – including periods of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Here are the key points:
- Snow will not be the main weather concern in our area. The heaviest snowfall from this system will fall in the northern parts of Ohio. Central parts of the Valley can expect to see and inch or less of snow. Folks north of Dover/New Phila could see a little more while those south a little less. This trend has been fairly consistant in computer models since Monday so confidence is high in this factor.
- Scattered light snow showers will be possible Thursday morning. A wedge of warm air will surge northward Thursday afternoon. This will result in rain mixing in with snow during the afternoon and evening.
- The majority of precipitation associated with the storm will occur Thursday after sunset and continue into early Friday morning. Periods of rain, wet snow, and sleet are likely during this period. The potential for freezing rain will depend greatly on how cold surface temperatures will get. As of this morning, model projections suggest it will be borderline so this is something we’ll need to keep an eye on. Temperature will be within a degree or two of 32°. Any slight cooling will make a big difference in whether freezing rain occurs in your location or not. Confidence is low in both the potential and amount of freezing rain.
- Temperatures will cool again behind a cold front Friday morning. All precipitation will transition to light snow. Scattered snow showers will diminish as remaining moisture exits the region. All precipitation should end by early Friday afternoon.
- Temperatures locally Friday night will cool to the low-20s. Any wet/slushy areas will freeze. Be aware of ice/black ice on untreated roads. Bridges and overpasses will be especially vulnerable to freezing.
At this point, I’m not too concerned about snow accumulation. Sleet and freezing rain could end up being the bigger issue with this system. If not freezing rain, then just plain old cold rain would add to our flooding issues. Many of our local waterways are already stressed and the ground is fully saturated in a lot of places. Additional rain will only make the situation worse.
Confidence in Thursday night temperatures and thus the likelihood for freezing rain will increase with today’s model runs. Hopefully, this will become clearer by late tonight or early Thursday morning.