Posted 9:00 AM 2/15/2023
Above normal temperatures and breezy conditions can be expected during the next couple of days with showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Storms Thursday evening could be severe. Dry conditions are expected this weekend.
Today will feature plenty of sunshine and windy conditions across the Valley. Temperatures this afternoon will likely exceed our record high for today and most neighborhoods will reach 70°. The record high for today in New Philadelphia is 65° set in 2005.
While it will be a breezy day in east-central Ohio, wind gusts in our area today should hover just below Advisory criteria (48 mph). A weak cold front will push through the region and stall to our south later this evening. Wind gusts will subside around or shortly after sunset. Until then expect gusts locally in the 30 to 40 mph range.
THURSDAY’S SEVERE THREAT
A low pressure system will track through the region Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring another round of gusty wind to the Valley along with widespread rain showers ahead of a sharp cold front. We can expect mainly rainy and windy conditions for most of the morning hours. Generally, we’ll see a fairly good soaking out of this tomorrow. Rain amounts across the region will run in the 0.70″ to 1.00″ range.
Thunder will enter the equation late in the day as the cold front inches closer to the area as we get toward sunset. Instability projections tomorrow show instability to be rather weak but with strong shear aloft. Any storms that can become tall enough to tap into this upper-level shear can pull down strong wind to the surface.
Timing and whether we see any breaks in the rain (or clearing) will be the main factors in whether these late-day storms can turn severe. The Storm Prediction Center has eastern Ohio highlighted for a Slight Risk (Level 2 on a scale of 1-5). Better chances of severe storms are in place for central Ohio where the front will be in closer proximity before sunset.
As mentioned above, the main concern is damaging straight-line wind gusts. The tornado risk for our area is pretty low but not zero.
THURSDAY NIGHT – FRIDAY
That strong cold front will sink through east-central Ohio Thursday night. Colder air will rush in behind the front for Friday. Temperatures locally will return to about normal for mid-February. It would not be surprising to see a few snow showers on Friday but any accumulation locally would be minimal at best.
Temperatures across the Valley will quickly warm over the weekend as high pressure returns dry weather and sunshine. Afternoon highs will warm to the low-40s Saturday, 50°-ish by Sunday.
