Posted by Joe on Wednesday, Jan 17, at 1:00 pm
High pressure over the Gulf states will provide for a dry and sunny day in the Tuscarawas Valley today. Temperatures will remain cold despite the ample sunshine. Afternoon highs won’t do much better than the low-20s this afternoon and a brisk southwest breeze will keep wind chills in the single digits.
Temperatures tonight won’t be as cold as last night. High clouds will stream in overhead overnight ahead of a weak wave of low pressure. The clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping off much lower than 20° or so toward sunrise Thursday. Wind chills overnight will stay in the single digits with that breezy southwest wind.
SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT THE NEXT 36 HOURS
A cold front sets up behind the upper-level wave that stretches northeast to just north of Lake Erie. With high pressure to our south, there is still some question on how much snow this will bring to our area Thursday morning. At this time it appears that the bulk of any light snowfall stays north of the Valley during the morning on Thursday. If any were to reach this far south it would be pretty light and not amount to much.
That high pressure area to the south will eventually push east and make its way into the Atlantic by Thursday night. That will allow the cold front to shift east and south. The odds of snow spreading into the east-central Ohio region gradually increase as the front approaches. Snowfall rates at first will be fairly light to moderate to start then increase early Friday morning as additional moisture gets pulled in from the south. Snow showers will gradually begin to taper off on Friday evening and pull away from the region Friday night.
With ground temperatures well below freezing and daytime air temperatures generally in the mid to upper-20s on Friday, snow will have no trouble sticking and adding up. Plan on a slow commute on Friday morning. Snow accumulation locally will likely amount to two or three inches by the time this wraps up Friday night.
Although additional snow looks unlikely on Saturday, another shot of colder air will flow into the region behind the front. Saturday’s daytime highs will drop back to the upper teens and a brisk northwest wind will return wind chills to the single digits once again.
The models are in decent agreement on how this next snow event will play out. The only exception is that little wave moving through on Thursday morning. And, there can be some small adjustments in the snow amounts with future model runs. Generally, though, I’m fairly confident in how things look as of early afternoon Wednesday.
THAWING OUT NEXT WEEK
We’re likely to see a winter intermission next week as temperatures warm and we get out of the deep freeze – at least for a short time. Temperatures locally are expected to warm well above average next week.
Thank you for sticking around and catching up with our local weather update. Enjoy the rest of your day. – Joe
The report is detailed but easy to understand.