A quasi-stationary warm front should remain to our south along the Ohio River vicinity through today. As such, the bulk of the heaviest rainfall during the daytime hours should occur along and south of I-70. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t see an isolated patch or two of rain in our area, but it does keep the odds of light rain in the 20%-30% range.
Otherwise, what you see outside this morning will pretty much continue – mainly cloudy and dreary with a small chance of drizzle or light rain.
An area of low pressure along the front will push it back northward tonight and Thursday. The front will lift northward again, accompanied by additional waves of rain. In addition, some weak instability will develop, which could result in an isolated thunderstorm or two tonight through Thursday. We’re not expecting anything strong or severe.
The wave of low pressure is expected to exit by Friday morning, allowing a southwest flow to drive the front further to the north. Shower and thunderstorm chances will decrease. Temperatures on Friday will warm to the low-70s.
A cold front will track into the Ohio River Valley on Saturday. Current model trends indicate that upper-level shear and instability increase through the day as the front approaches. Timing favors the front moving into the area late in the day on Saturday, which could increase the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. We’ll need to monitor this trend in the days ahead.
Dry weather but cooler temperatures will return to the Valley on Sunday. Another cold frontal crossing mid-week next week will knock temperatures back to near-average.
In case you’re wondering, the record high temperature on Friday in New Phila is 81° (1983), and Saturday is 75° (2000). Saturday’s high temperature has the best chance of being matched or broken.
