We can expect one more warm, somewhat humid, and largely dry day across the east-central Ohio region today. Mid and upper-level clouds will gradually increase as a cold front off to our north and west approaches. This front will eventually bring shower and thunderstorm chances into the Tuscarawas Valley area later this evening and tonight.
Meanwhile, outflow from thunderstorm activity overnight and early this morning to our west will result in a small chance (10% – 20%) of an isolated shower or even a rumble of thunder through the morning and early afternoon, but the majority of this activity should mainly keep north of the Valley. The addition of clouds will likely hold temperatures a degree or three lower today than yesterday.
More showers and thunderstorms will track across western and central Ohio late this afternoon and into eastern Ohio by this evening. Since these won’t arrive in our local area until after today’s peak heating, waning instability should result in a weakening thunderstorm trend as storms travel into eastern Ohio this evening. Still, a storm or two could remain tall enough to maintain strong downdrafts and damaging gust potential across our local area.
The potential for hail is much lower given the late-day timing and lack of shear. The risk of a tornado is a bit higher in northern Ohio, closer to Lake Erie.
Showers and storms will decrease as the front moves in overnight, but some will continue on Wednesday as the boundary moves through. The threat of any strong/severe weather should shift south of our area on Wednesday morning along with the front. The warmest part of the day on Wednesday will be in the early morning. With clouds and rain remaining through most of the day, temperatures will hover in the mid-60s.
Dry weather returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the region. Mostly sunny conditions with cooler temperatures are likely on Thursday.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Current modeling indicates a low-pressure trough moving into the region from the Plains on Friday. This will likely result in an unsettled weather pattern with periods of showers and storms.
It’s early in the forecast cycle, and specific timing at this point is improbable at best. However, the first round of rain is likely at some point on Friday, with widespread rain moving in Friday night into Saturday. Persistent cloud cover will probably hold temperatures back some, especially on Saturday. Some improvement will be possible on Sunday, although chances of precipitation will remain through Memorial Day.
If you have lawn mowing or garden work, Thursday will be your best bet to get those outdoor tasks done. With this unsettled weather pattern ahead, various computer models are in pretty good agreement that between today and next Tuesday morning, we could see somewhere around two inches of rain or more on average. This won’t come all at once, so at this point, we’re not expecting any flooding issues.
Thank you for taking a few minutes to catch up with our area’s only locally-focused weather resource. Have a great Tuesday!
