The forecast for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening remains largely unchanged this morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has continued to flag all of the east-central Ohio region in a Level 2 (Slight Risk) of severe weather today. Damaging straight-line wind is the primary threat, but there is also a low-end risk for large hail. The risk of a tornado also remains quite low, but not zero.
A few showers and perhaps some lightning are possible this morning, leftovers from stronger storms that occurred last night off to our west. Depending on how quickly this initial round of clouds and rain can exit the region will have an impact on how things develop this afternoon.
The morning high-resolution model runs all show some degree of clearing by late morning into early afternoon. Any extended period of sunshine, and thus surface heating, would result in a more favorable environment for strong thunderstorms as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region late this afternoon.
Current model runs depict scattered storm cells developing this afternoon off to our north and west. These then continue to slide southeast into our area by early evening. It’ll be a tough call to determine which areas will get a strong thunderstorm as this cluster of storms moves through the region.
Areas that happen to fall under one of these cells would most likely be on the receiving end of strong, gusty winds and brief, heavy rainfall. Hail is also a possibility in any of the taller storm cells.
The threat of severe weather will end after sunset this evening – 9:00/10:00 PM.
HEADS UP – NEXT WEEK
High pressure will bring dry weather back to the region on Sunday and Monday. Guidance then suggests a much warmer and unsettled trend developing mid-week into next weekend. Very warm temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s would bring hot and humid conditions for the latter half of the workweek.
Partly sunny with hints of vertical development in a few clouds here in Johnstown. Thanks for the update, Joe; your reports are much appreciated!