Heavy rain possible Friday; Trending a bit drier for the weekend

A slow-moving cold front will be our main weather maker today as it drops south from the Great Lakes. Showers and eventually scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front as it makes its way into east-central Ohio today. With the current timing laid out by the hi-res models, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon.

While there is sufficient instability for thunder, upper-level shear is lacking. The lack of shear will keep the threat of severe storms in check over our area.

However, there is a hefty amount of water vapor available and not much in the way of wind aloft. The beefier storms today could be heavy rain producers.

Coverage of storms will drop off tonight with the loss of daytime heating, although the threat of isolated showers will continue overnight. The hi-res model gives us an idea of how the radar might play out today through midnight:

With the amount of cloud cover as well as the likelihood of showers and storms around, temperatures today will warm to the low 80s this afternoon. Cloud cover will keep temperatures warm tonight and most areas will only cool off to the mid-60s.

WEEKEND RAIN THREATS
Friday’s cold front is rather weak but it will not move south much by Saturday. That will keep the threat for a few scattered showers around especially in the afternoon and evening. It doesn’t look to be a washout by any means, but we may have to deal with a little rain now and then in some spots.

There will be a brief window during the afternoon heat before the front sinks far enough south where a thunderstorm or two will be possible as well.

The cutoff low that we talked about here earlier in the week will still develop by Sunday. However, the newer model runs show the low developing a bit further east. This would keep most of the rain associated with the low east of our area and actually bring decent chances for a dry Sunday.

There are some model differences in how far removed from us the low will actually be and for that reason, I’ve kept a small chance for a shower or storm going through Sunday’s forecast. Otherwise, Sunday will be the drier day of the weekend and we’ll even throw in some sunshine. Temperatures should warm to near average – especially with any appreciable sunshine.

I’ll stress that there are model differences and if you have outdoor plans, keep up with the forecast. Our dry time over the weekend has improved, but it’s not zero given the model differences.

NEXT WEEK
An upper-level low will shift to New England Monday and offshore of the Atlantic by Wednesday. With this pattern, the threat for daily afternoon showers and storms will continue as the low slowly makes its way east. Our best odds for a dry period will be Wednesday but moisture will return by Wednesday night. There is some indication of a more significant storm system impacting the region on Thursday but it’s still pretty far out there yet. I’ll continue to keep an eye on this feature as it develops.

As for humidity this week – not bad actually for mid-August. While it will be a bit sticky a few days, at least it doesn’t look terribly muggy over the next seven days.

Have a great weekend!

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