Two more warm days, then the big switch to fall

There is not much in the way of changes for today’s forecast. High pressure centered off the Atlantic will keep a southerly flow over east-central Ohio. That means warm temperatures and humid conditions for the Tuscarawas Valley. Afternoon highs will run about 20 degrees above average again today.

Tonight will bring dry, clear, and muggy conditions with overnight lows in the mid-60s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
This period will herald the much-advertised pattern change that will take us from lingering summerlike conditions straight to autumn. There has been little change in the overall scheme of things. The major models have been in remarkably good agreement with low pressure lifting out of the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and into Quebec by Thursday. This will drag a powerful cold front across east-central Ohio on Thursday.

With plenty of dry air in place, the prospects for showers looks pretty slim on Wednesday. Clouds will increase as the front approaches from the west but I think we will stay dry. Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday will continue to be warm but increasing clouds will keep afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than today.

The potential for widespread rain will gradually ramp up towards evening becoming all but certain Wednesday night. There will be sufficient moisture ahead of the front Wednesday night and a couple of heavy downpours will be possible in some spots. Generally, though, widespread heavy rain shouldn’t be something to be overly concerned about. Any periods of heavy rain should be brief.

Also, with the front approaching and crossing when instability is weak will lessen the threat for any strong thunderstorms. While some thunder will certainly be possible, strong/severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

Showers will clear out quickly behind the front Thursday. Hi-res modeling indicates things should start to clear out by lunchtime. Blustery northwest wind 15 to 20 mph will persist most of the day.

Temperatures will remain warm Wednesday night with most neighborhoods in the mid 60s  by early Thursday morning. Thursday’s warmest temperatures will occur in the morning. After the cold front crosses, temperatures will take a downward spiral and it will be around 20 degrees colder Thursday night.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
Friday and Saturday will be nice days as high pressure returns to bring dry conditions back to the region. Despite mostly sunny skies, daytime temperatures will be much much cooler. Nighttime temperatures will be downright chilly. Here in the Valley, temperatures will be the coldest we’ve seen since April.

I did see some social media posts this morning regarding the possibility of frost. I doubt frost will be an issue here during the latter part of the week and over the weekend. Temperatures will not be quite cold enough and a light breeze will avert frost formation for the time being. It is October and we will eventually end the growing season at some point. But, not quite yet.

Moisture associated with Michael will remain off to the east of the Appalachians. (Our cold front will help push Michael off the mid-Atlantic Coast.) Any rain chances Friday and Saturday will keep north along the lake shore.

Temperatures will warm up a bit Sunday and it will turn cloudy ahead of the next cold front. Odds for showers will increase toward evening with rain becoming likely Sunday night into Monday.

LONG RANGE
Thursday’s front will be a game-changer. Those warm, summerlike temperatures and humidity will finally give way to a cool weather pattern that will have some staying power.

The second half of the month will have a colder than average look as projected by the Climate Prediction Center.

Ensemble models also bear this trend out. Here, the European ensembles show a persistent cold pattern shaping up for the long range.

If you’ve been fed up with warm humid summer weather and anxious for fall-like conditions, you wish has been granted. For the rest of us, not so much.