Timing today’s showers and storms

After an extended period of sunny and dry weather, an unsettled pattern will set up today and bring the threat for showers and storms to the Valley through Thursday.

A weak cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the Valley this afternoon and evening. While widespread severe storms are not expected, there is a small chance that an isolated storm or two could produce strong wind gusts and small hail.

The Storm Prediction Center has all of east-central Ohio flagged for a Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe thunderstorms later today.

NWSSPC Day 1 Outlook

Today’s showers and storms will be slow-movers and capable of heavy rain. Any neighborhood that happens to get under one of these could see some street and flash flooding.

TIMING
We should stay dry and pleasant here in the Valley through early afternoon. While I can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm through mid-afternoon, the highest risk for thunderstorms won’t arrive until late afternoon.

SIMULATED radar image from the Hi-Res model through midnight.

The front will take its good old time moving through. Showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility overnight tonight and Wednesday. With the amount of cloud cover in place on Wednesday, strong to severe thunderstorms are not likely.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A second stronger cold front will approach and cross east-central Ohio on Thursday. This one will bring slightly higher odds for severe weather to our area – depending on the timing.

As of today, the SPC has all of central Ohio highlighted for a “Slight Risk” (2/5) for Thursday.

NWSSPC Day 3 Severe Outlook

The primary threat with Thursday’s storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail. The timing of the front will have an impact on how strong storms can become. If early in the day, the risk for severe storms will be much lower. If the front lags until midday, the potential for severe storms will be higher.

I will continue to monitor Thursday’s situation for the severe potential.

Severe thunderstorms or not, the front will clear our area Thursday night allowing high pressure to move back into east-central Ohio for Friday. This will set us up for a nearly perfect late summer weekend. Sunshine, dry air, and cooler temperatures will be here for Friday and remain through the weekend.

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