With our cold front gradually drifting off to the east and south look for a cloudier day in the Valley today. Most of any storm activity this morning will be centered east of our area and it should remain mostly dry in most neighborhoods through the rest of the morning. Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will become a factor in the afternoon locally but nothing strong or severe is expected. Coverage will be less than yesterday.
Simulated FutureCast radar for today:
Clouds will help keep temperatures a bit cooler this afternoon. Highs look to top out in the low 80s locally.
Odds for a shower or storm will subside late this evening after sunset and the loss of daytime heating. As temperatures overnight cool to near the dew point, patchy fog may develop for the morning commute.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
A second stronger cold front is on tap to approach and cross east-central Ohio tomorrow. The timing of this next system will bring a higher threat for severe thunderstorms to the Valley than we saw yesterday. Large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats but there will be plenty of moisture available for storms to tap into. Some storms will be capable of heavy rain which would raise the possibility for flash flooding.
The threat for supercells is a bit concerning and while it’s not off the charts high, it is enough to mention a low chance for tornadoes. It isn’t high but it’s not zero either. This is a factor that I’ll keep close tabs on in future SPC discussions.
TIMING
There are some differences in modeling this morning. For the most part, the greatest threat for any severe storms locally generally looks to move into the area by mid-afternoon. The severe threat will continue into the early evening before subsiding just before sunset. I expect the timing to come into better focus by early Thursday morning.
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER
The threat for showers and storms will taper off and end Thursday night with the passing of the front. High pressure will then take over to clear out the clouds and bring in the sunshine.
With cooler and drier air flowing in behind Thursday’s storms, absolutely spectacular weather will set up for Friday and the weekend.
Temperatures will cool off to the upper 70s for Friday then warm to the low 80s for Saturday and Sunday. With dew points in the 50s, it will feel very nice outside and not much on the way of clouds overhead.
EXTENDED FORECAST
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for next week pretty much reflects the current climate modeling in the mid-range. Temperatures look to remain slightly below average next week locally and that will make some folks happy.
The precipitation outlook leans a little toward slightly higher odds we end up with above average precipitation for next week.
I’ll keep an eye on tomorrow’s severe potential and post an update in the morning with any last-minute changes.
