Rain likely today and tonight; Drying out on Friday for the weekend

Posted Thursday, March 11, 2021

Strong southerly breezes overnight kept our local temperatures much warmer than normal overnight. The average low temperature in New Phila around this time of the year is 27°. The coldest spot this morning was in the Sugarcreek area with 54°. The morning low at the airport was 63° – or 36° warmer than normal.


Isolated showers are possible this morning due to increasing moisture with an approaching cold front. Dry air close to the surface will limit most of the morning to sprinkles or light showers. Thickening cloud cover will put a lid on temperatures today. Most locations will see afternoon highs in the mid-60s.

Showers will become more widespread this afternoon and continue overnight. A rumble or two of thunder is also possible and a few storms could be strong. (See the Severe Weather Update below.) The most consistently wet period today will be during the mid/late afternoon through about 10:00 PM. It’ll be breezy again today with southwest wind 10 – 15 mph.

HI-RES FUTURECAST Simulated Radar snapshot at 3:00 PM this afternoon

Total rainfall through Friday afternoon should run around a quarter to a half-inch locally. Dry air will move into the region early Friday behind our cold front as high pressure builds overhead. Showers will taper off and end Friday morning and we’ll even see a return to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.

Generally speaking, temperatures on Friday will be about 10-degrees cooler than today, so still not too bad with highs in the mid-50s. Normally, highs for this period of March are about 49°/50°.

High pressure will maintain dry weather over the weekend in the Valley. A second reinforcing cold front will sink through east-central Ohio on Saturday without much fanfare. However, colder air behind this second front will drop area temperatures even cooler. Afternoon highs will drop off to the upper-40s to around 50°. Nighttime lows will back off to the upper-20s.

While we will remain precipitation-free both days, Saturday will be the sunnier day of the weekend.

You’ve probably heard about a high-impact storm system that will bring heavy snow to Colorado and Wyoming over the weekend. The storm system that dumps on that area will eventually make its way northeast and into the Ohio Valley by Monday.


The system will push a cold front northwestward into east-central Ohio on Monday accompanied by precipitation.

The timing of the arrival of this next system is still a bit undecided and the timing will have some impact on precipitation type as things get underway Monday. If the system moves in early enough Monday morning, snow or a rain/snow mid would be possible for a time. Precipitation is likely to be all rain, though, by the afternoon.

Even if we were to see a brief period of snow or mixed precipitation on Monday, it would not amount to much if any accumulation locally. The highest odds of any accumulating snow would stay north of our area where temperatures are likely to remain colder later.

Temperatures through the first half of next week are likely to not stray too far from climate averages.

NWS National Blend of Models


Day1 Today: UPDATED 11:40 AM – A thunderstorm will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening. A few storms may produce gusty wind of 50 mph or more. There is a Marginal Risk ( 1 on a scale of 1-5) of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail in our area.

Day2 Friday: Severe weather is not likely.

Day3 Saturday: Severe weather is not likely.

DAY 4 – 8: Severe weather is not likely.

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Be safe out there!



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