Friday Update on the Sunday Night Winter Storm

Posted Friday AM, January 14, 2022

New data has come in overnight so let’s bring everyone up to speed regarding the incoming winter storm for the latter part of the weekend.

First, the Pittsburgh NWS pulled the trigger on a Winter storm Watch for our area early this morning. Wayne, Holmes, and Stark counties will probably see their Watch issued at some point today. Our area is bisected by Cleveland and Pittsburgh offices and Cleveland will likely issue their watch later today.

The makings of our winter storm are currently getting their act together out over the Plains states this morning. This disturbed area will continue a southerly track through today and tonight. By Saturday morning it will be a fairly impressive storm system centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. By Sunday morning it will shift back north and east headed for the southern Atlantic Coast.

The current model trends bring the center of low pressure into a favorable position to bring a decent snowstorm to eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. It won’t be a record-breaker but it will bring enough snow to east-central Ohio to cause some disruptions Sunday night and Monday.

LOCAL TIMING
Sunday will actually start out as a pretty nice day with some sunshine in the morning. As it stands now, we’ll have no weather issues during the daytime hours on Sunday.

Snow will start to spread in from the south toward sunset. Once it moves in it will continue to snow through much of the night. Temperatures will be cold so snow will have no problems sticking. The snow will be wetter at first but as the night progresses and temperatures cool snow will become fluffier.

The heaviest snowfall looks to occur from about 9:00 PM to around 1:00 AM. Don’t hold me to that exactly. That’s just what it looks like with today’s model runs. Snow showers will taper off Monday morning south to north as the storm pushes off to the northeast.

LOCAL IMPACTS
It’s going to snow Sunday night and it’s going to stick. While our area is not in the bull’s eye for the heaviest snow amounts, we will get enough to shovel and plow. Streets and roads will be snow-covered. There will likely be travel issues Monday morning.

There COULD be a period of sleet for a while at the onset of snow Sunday evening. High wind gusts aren’t going to be a factor so the risk for widespread power outages is pretty low. That doesn’t mean you won’t lose power but any outages that do occur should be localized.

If you must travel Sunday night during the highest snowfall times, visibility will likely be an issue.

SNOW AMOUNTS
Everyone wants to know how much snow we’re going to get. My answer is, enough to impact your day. Whether it’s four inches or 8-inches, the impacts are the same – you will need to shovel snow and travel will be challenging for a while.

I’ll publish a snow amount map later this evening after I get a couple more model runs and the high-resolution models settle down. For now, expect more than a few inches. Current blended solutions indicate that snowfall will be heavier as you go east from New Philadelphia. Our area could be bisected by a gradient right down the middle so we’ll have to watch for that possibility.

Another thing I want to look at is the potential for sleet mixing into the system from a thin layer of warm air aloft that could mix in nearby. That would have an impact on snow amounts.

Again, I wouldn’t focus too much on the numbers but on how this is going to impact your plans for Sunday night and Monday. We’re still early into this and small changes in the projected track of the storm, as well as that aforementioned warm air layer, will result in changes to snow amounts and locations.

Keep informed. There remains a lot of wiggle room so changes are likely going forward. Look for updates here. You can also follow me on Twitter @tuscwx.

As always, be safe out there.

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