Posted by Joe on Monday, April 1
Periods of heavy rainfall and a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms continue over the next 48 hours.
Rain showers will taper off through the morning leaving us with a mainly dry afternoon across the Valley. Rain, along with the chances of a thunderstorm or two, will return later this evening and tonight, however. Soils are already saturated at this point so any significant rain amounts tonight will increase the flood potential in our area.
As for the potential of severe storms tonight, the Storm Prediction Center brings the Marginal Risk (Level 1) just south of the Valley. Instability is weak at best but there could be enough support for a strong gusty storm as one travels closer to the I-70 corridor.
Instability will gradually increase on Tuesday as temperatures warm in the afternoon. Along with that, shear aloft will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. The latest update from the SPC has trimmed back the highest concern of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday a bit farther to the south. That still keeps our area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The southerly shift by the SPC pretty much reduces the tornado risk for the Valley on Tuesday but still maintains a low-end threat of damaging wind and large hail. The potential for heavy rainfall along the frontal boundary as it moves through eastern Ohio also raises concerns of localized flooding and flash flood.
Whether we see any severe weather or not, colder air and windy conditions will flow into east-central Ohio by Wednesday. Low pressure will likely stall overhead keeping the threat of rain and occasional snow showers going through Thursday. The low should exit the region by Friday allowing dry weather with gradually warming temperatures to return to the Valley for the weekend.
