Posted by Joe on Tuesday, April 1
Storm Prediction Center places our area in Moderate Risk (Level 4 on a scale of 1-5) for Severe Thunderstorms on Tuesday. All severe modes are on the table including the threat of tornadoes.
Here are the latest graphics from the SPC. Note that the timing for our area is between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM on Tuesday evening.
This is a very rare situation for our area. I can’t ever recall seeing a Level 4 Hatched Risk for severe storms in our area.
WHY THE BIG DIFFERENCE SINCE THIS MORNING?
The big jump from this morning’s SPC Outlook is due primarily to the potential for the atmosphere to recover from precipitation and thunderstorms early Tuesday morning. Instability and upper-level shear are forecast to increase rapidly during the afternoon tomorrow just as a potent cold front approaches. This combination will favor the development of supercells as strong low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Overall confidence is high that strong wind shear will be available to organize thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening.
Destabilization in the wake of storms earlier Tuesday morning will be the determining factor with regards to the severity of thunderstorms later in the day.
WHAT DO I NEED TO DO?
This is a significant severe weather threat, so take it seriously. Have a reliable way to receive any warnings.
- NOAA Weather Radio
- A RELIABLE weather warning app – The FEMA App is a good choice
- Make sure Wireless Emergency Alerts are enable on your devices
- Electronic Media – LOCAL Television and Radio, Internet live streams
Outdoor Tornado Sirens are Not Recommended as a primary source of weather warnings!
Again, please take this seriously.
Thanks Joe for the accuracy. When you are this concerned, everyone needs to take this forecast seriously. Be safe.
Setups like this are really a rare occurrence in our area so when they do it’s best to take it seriously. Be prepared, not scared.