There is a High Potential for Severe Thunderstorms Across Our Area Late This Afternoon and Evening

KEY MESSAGES:

• There is high confidence that severe thunderstorms will impact our area later today
• Some storms could be significant with gusts of 75 mph or higher, and large hail of 2 inches or greater
• Long-track and powerful tornadoes (EF2 or greater) can occur in these storms
• Storms today may also produce frequent lightning and heavy rainfall

ACTIONS

• Pay close attention to reliable weather information resources today
• Have reliable and redundant ways to receive weather warnings and messages
• Have a plan; Know where your family’s safe place is and be prepared to go there quickly

The key factor determining the development of severe storms today will be whether the atmosphere can recover after the early morning storms and rain and then destabilize again later this afternoon.

LOCAL TIMING

• Timing of the highest risk of severe weather in our area is between the hours of 5:00 pm and 10:00 pm this evening

WHERE ARE THE RISKS?

The morning forecast map from the Storm Prediction Center (part of the National Weather Service) shows the potential for severe weather ranked on a scale of 1-5 with Level 5 being the highest. Our area in east-central Ohio is in a rare Level 4 today. That means confidence is high for severe storms occurring in our area later today.

Of particular concern for today is the risk of tornadoes. Of course, your eyes are drawn to the red areas of the map. This area represents the highest risk for the development of tornadoes. The hashed lines represent the area of highest concern for the potential of significant tornadoes – those rated EF2 or higher.

ANY storms later today can also produce damaging straight-line winds and large hail.

THE PLAYBOOK FOR TODAY

Heavy rain, which has already prompted Flood Warnings for our area, is expected to taper off and end by mid to late morning allowing for a period of dry weather this afternoon. Our weather should be fairly calm by lunchtime and during the afternoon.

Activity is forecast to ramp back up by around 5:00 pm as showers and thunderstorms in the southwest travel northeast into our area. (We may see a Tornado Watch by this time)

It is during this period – from around 4 pm to about 8 pm when the concern for tornadoes seems to be greatest. After 7 or 8 pm, closer to sunset, the greatest threat of tornadoes starts to lessen. By 10 pm we should be pretty much out of the woods as far as severe weather goes.

WHAT FACTORS COULD DERAIL STORM DEVELOPMENT?

As we all know, there are no solid guarantees that severe weather will materialize. There are a couple of factors that will determine whether storms can intensify later today. Chief among the determining factors is whether or not the atmosphere can recover during the expected afternoon dry time, and then destabilize again late in the afternoon. Another factor is the exact placement of the warm front that lifted through the region this morning and exactly where it hangs up later this afternoon.

ARE ANY CHANGES IN THE OUTLOOK LIKELY?

The SPC updates several times through the day as more information is gathered and processed so, yes, there can be slight changes in timing and such. I will post notable updates here on the TUSCWeather website and the app.

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