Local weather conditions should remain rain-free during the daytime hours and into early evening. However, a warm front is approaching the region from the Midwest and is due to arrive around sunset later this evening.
The latest model timing has slowed the arrival of storms in our area until a bit later in the evening. This will work to allow the stronger storms to impact western parts of the state this afternoon. The line of storms will weaken somewhat by the time they reach our area after sunset this evening.
In response to the projected later arrival of the front, the Storm Prediction Center has DECREASED the risk of severe thunderstorms for eastern parts of Ohio to a Level 1 – Marginal Risk.
That doesn’t completely eliminate our chances of severe weather, however. It does mean that the chances of a gusty thunderstorm are slightly less, as the storms come as we lose daytime heating and peak instability. Some of the storms later this evening could still pack strong wind gusts, but the threat for hail and tornado development will be much less likely.
The westward travel of tonight’s storms has also increased somewhat. While we will still see a potential for heavy downpours, the faster motion of storms will limit the threat for localized flooding.
The warm front will then reverse course on Sunday and travel back south as a cold front, and return a low-end risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon. As it is today, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts.
Cooler and drier air will move into the region Sunday night and Monday. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build into the region by mid-week. We can expect to see hot and humid conditions return for the second half of next week.
The heat index is likely to reach the upper 90s to around 100° on Thursday and Friday. The warm, unstable, and humid atmosphere could also bring an uptick in severe storm chances.
