Confidence is increasing in widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight with a potent cold front crossing the east-central Ohio region. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible with all severe modes in play – damaging straight-line wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. Storms will be fast-moving but will also track over the same areas, which may lead to heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns.
After a cloudy start in the Valley this morning, temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 70s across the region under a mix of sun and clouds. With dew points rising into the upper-50s to around 60° during this afternoon break, the atmosphere will have little trouble becoming unstable. A warm front, stalled over Lake Erie, will reverse course and slide southward as a cold front, initiating showers and thunderstorms across northern Ohio during the mid to late afternoon.
This line of showers and storms will continue south and into a favorable environment and present a severe weather threat to the region this evening into tonight. Thunderstorms will push east-southeast along the frontal boundary through the evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of east-central Ohio, including the Tuscarawas Valley area, to an Enhanced Risk, or Level 3 on a scale of 1-5, for severe thunderstorms later today.
All severe weather hazards are in play with this line of storms – Damaging straight-line wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. In addition, heavy rainfall overnight into Friday morning can lead to isolated flooding issues in areas where repeated storms occur.
There will be plenty of wind energy and shear aloft that has the potential to cause cells to spin, and this introduces a higher risk of tornadoes.
LOCAL TIMING
Expect the main line of potentially severe thunderstorms anytime after 6:00 PM this evening in our area. The main threat of severe storms should decrease around 10:00 or 11:00 PM. Periods of heavy rainfall and perhaps non-severe storms may continue overnight into Friday morning. Localized flooding is possible in those areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain.
Note that the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall will likely continue after dark. Have a reliable way to receive any warnings.
AFTER THE STORM
The actual cold front will be slow to transition the area, but should eventually clear south of the region on Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be some 30 degrees colder with daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s. Cloud cover will gradually thin under building high pressure and allow dry weather conditions to return.
Temperatures will gradually warm through next week.
Thank you!
Thanks Joe!!!!!
Ugh…thanks for the heads-up! I appreciate all you do, Joe!