An active weather pattern is shaping up to dominate this week, featuring several opportunities for rain and perhaps a round of strong thunderstorms.
After a dry Sunday, a weak low pressure area will move into the Great Lakes out of the Plains on Sunday night. There may be a light shower on Monday morning, followed by a dry period in the afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will warm nicely into the mid-60s.
Moisture will increase Monday evening, and chances for showers will ramp up, becoming likely overnight into Tuesday morning. A non-severe thunderstorm and/or a brief period of heavy rain is not out of the question.
By Tuesday, the area will be firmly in the warm sector, and temperatures will likely warm to the mid/upper 70s across our area. The question then becomes when the system’s cold front arrives to bring our next shot of widespread rain and thunderstorms.
The risk of severe thunderstorms affecting the area will depend greatly on the timing of the front. Early in the day would be the best outcome since heating would be limited. The threat of severe storms would increase modestly should the front come through early in the afternoon. The worst outcome and highest risk for severe weather would set up if the front drops through the region toward the latter part of the day when temperatures and instability peak.
Hopefully, we can get better guidance from the models during the next 36 to 48 hours. Until then, we’ll just have to keep an eye on the trends going forward.
Despite the severe threat, some ensemble trends have already begun to indicate a potential for heavy rain. Some guidance suggests the front hangs up just to our south before lifting back north as a warm front. And, area rivers and streams are just now receding from last week’s heavy rain.
WEDS – FRIDAY
Things start to get fuzzy as we head into the second half of the week. Temperatures on Wednesday will be some degrees cooler behind the cold front. Most of the ensemble forecasts indicate temperatures will likely remain a handful of degrees above average.
After the front shifts back north as a warm front, it’s likely to stall once again near the vicinity, keeping the unsettled weather pattern going through the end of the work week. Flooding will become a concern depending on the frequency and duration of rainfall through the period.
Temperatures after Wednesday will once again trend above normal going into the weekend.
We will have to just be prepared for whatever develops. Thanks for the update