After a very warm and somewhat humid day yesterday, it will be a while before we see daytime highs in the upper 80s again. The cold front that brought a line of decaying thunderstorms to the east-central Ohio region last evening is slowly tracking through the area this morning. Those warm temperatures this morning will decrease during the afternoon, dropping into the mid to upper 50s by sunset this evening.
And, it won’t be a very pleasant day to say the least. Skies will remain gray and cloudy with occasional showers and drizzle at times as that front creeps southward through the day. It may be late tonight before that front gets far enough south to bring an end to the rain threat.
High pressure will visit briefly on Thursday, allowing for the driest day of the next seven ahead. If you have mowing or garden tasks, Thursday is likely the best opportunity to get them done before the weekend. Temperatures will also cooperate with daytime highs around 70°.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
Model guidance hasn’t changed much regarding the outlook for the holiday weekend. A warm front lifting in from the south will bring increasing chances of rain and thunderstorms on Friday. Rain will become likely at some point on Friday afternoon, with widespread rain by Friday evening.
Saturday doesn’t look much better as the frontal boundary stalls in the vicinity. Sunday may bring some hope during the second half of the day as the boundary wobbles slightly south of the area. While showers will continue to be possible, the odds of rain in any one location will be slightly less. The jury is still out yet for Memorial Day at this point. Rain chances will depend on where the boundary happens to settle, but it could go either way.
Plan on a fairly decent slug of rain with this wet pattern over the next week. (Similar setups such as this have resulted in 2″+ of rain in our area in the past.) Most of the model guidance suggests rain totals for our local area running in the 2″ to 3″ range today (Wednesday) through next Tuesday morning.
All of the rain won’t come at once – it’ll be spread out over the extended period, so flooding shouldn’t be an issue. Rises in water and flow levels in area streams and along the Tuscarawas River are a good bet, however. And, folks along the problematic areas along Stillwater Creek will likely see flooding in all the usual spots.
On the plus side of things, AI models suggest a very low potential of severe thunderstorm potential over the next seven days.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
A drier and warmer pattern looks to return next week after the holiday.
Thank you for taking a few minutes to catch up with our area’s only locally-focused weather resource. Have a great Wednesday!
