The ridge of high pressure at this point is firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley region. It will most likely remain there through Thursday. Ensemble models continue to indicate the ridge will begin to weaken and break down on Friday as it slowly creeps southward. The process will continue through the Fourth of July weekend and into early next week.
The good news is that, while it will remain warm and toasty through the weekend, we will start to see gradually falling temperatures. The bad news is that it will also increase the potential for thunderstorms.
Historically, coming out of a potent heat wave like the one we’re currently experiencing isn’t complete without a round or two of severe thunderstorms. Many of our computer models, as well as AI models, continue to favor the development and impact of strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the east-central Ohio region by Friday night. Likely chances of storms will then continue through Sunday.
It’s way too soon for specifics this far out. Forecast models are likely to continue to struggle with figuring out storm evolution from Friday through Sunday. Even when the timing comes into the range of our high-resolution models, factors such as prior precipitation events and outflow boundaries from thunderstorm activity north and west of the region will influence the outcome on any given day.
Details, such as timing and placement, may not be fully understood until the morning of. I’m only mentioning this because this is, after all, a huge holiday weekend. Many of us will be outdoors. There are festivals, picnics, cookouts, and of course, fireworks all weekend long. And historically, a pattern change like this usually comes with a non-zero risk of severe thunderstorms.
By all means, keep your weekend plans. While you’re out celebrating this weekend, just remain aware of the weather forecast – particularly the severe outlooks. Forecasting thunderstorm activity will be a challenge moving forward. Have a reliable way of getting severe weather alerts, and not just tornado warnings.
The primary threat in any storms that MAY occur will come from damaging wind gusts, with a much lower potential of hail. With the high dew points we’ve been experiencing, a tropical downpour is also possible. And, of course, there is lightning. ANY lightning is dangerous to anyone outdoors. These types of severe setups are usually not favorable for tornadoes.
Enjoy! Have a great weekend. Happy Independence Day!
