Today (Wednesday) will be the hottest day of the week here in the Tuscarawas Valley. Daytime highs across the area this afternoon into early this evening will likely top out in the mid-90s. Many of our local communities will see heat index values around 100°.
A Heat Advisory is in effect today until 8″00 PM this evening.
We will also be dealing with smoke from the wildfires currently ongoing in southern Ontario and Minnesota over the next few days. Initially, the smoke is expected to remain aloft today, resulting in a milky/hazy sky across the area. Computer models do indicate a trend in the upper-level flow that could bring wildfire smoke closer to the surface on Thursday and Friday. Should that pan out, air quality impacts will be likely here, so folks with respiratory conditions will need to make adjustments.
With little in the way of a shift in the upper-level flow in the days ahead, continued instances of smoke appear likely into the weekend. The amount of impact here locally will depend on the intensity of the wildfires upstream, but modeling does project that smoke from these fires isn’t going to decrease going forward.
WEEKEND PATTERN SHIFT
The ridge of high pressure overhead that’s responsible for this current heat wave will begin to weaken and break down on Friday and Saturday. This will set up a northwest flow overhead that will lead to an active weather pattern over the weekend and into early next week.
Historically, these summertime heat waves usually end with a round of severe weather. The atmosphere will certainly be plenty unstable enough given the model trends over the past several days. All that’s needed will be a trigger, and that may arrive with a couple of disturbances aloft.
Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has no severe threat risks in place due to the uncertainty present at this stage of the game, but the familiar pattern warrants some concern in the potential for severe thunderstorms going forward.
With the current setup of a strong northwest flow and instability, Saturday will be the day of the highest potential for severe weather, with a cold front moving through the region. There remains, however, a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength this far out. Just be aware that Saturday could be a stormy day and that some of the storms could get rowdy. Heavy rainfall is also another factor we’re keeping an eye on.
Things should settle down on Sunday. Although there may still be some showers and storms around on Sunday, it doesn’t look like a washout. Most of this activity will be scattered/isolated.
The welcome news for many folks will be the cooler temperatures that should arrive after the front comes through. However, the unsettled weather with periodic showers/storms will likely continue into early next week.
