The persistent upper-level ridge that has been the primary driver of our ongoing heat wave will begin to weaken and break down late in the day on Friday and continue on Saturday. This will bring a couple of periods where showers and thunderstorms develop and travel through east-central Ohio, and eventually, cooler temperatures into early next week.
While there are still some timing differences between forecast models, our weather will turn more active beginning Friday afternoon/evening as a warm front lifts through the region. This will bring our first opportunity for showers and storms. This first round is not expected to produce severe thunderstorms, and storm chances may even be tempered somewhat by the wildfire smoke that will still be present overhead. A garden-variety summertime storm or two will certainly be a good possibility, but a strong gusty storm can’t be completely ruled out either.
The second opportunity, and the better odds of severe thunderstorms, arrives on Saturday. Again, the exact timing of the front is an issue, but at this stage of the forecast, an afternoon/evening period would be when all the severe ingredients come together. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed all of eastern Ohio in the Level 2, Slight Risk.
The main limiting factor to severe storms developing on Saturday will be the amount of stabilization that can occur with any showers/storms earlier in the day. The primary threat from any afternoon/evening severe storms would be damaging straight-line winds. However, large hail can’t be ruled out early in storm development.
Another concern for both Friday and Saturday is the abundance of moisture storms have at their disposal. Any storms through the period could tap into that moisture and produce heavy downpours, leading to a flash flood risk.
TRENDING DRIER ON SUNDAY
Model runs over the last 24 hours have trended drier, so we’ve removed precipitation chances in the forecast for Sunday. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will return Monday night into Tuesday with the next system moving through. Temperatures will remain quite warm through Saturday but turn cooler on Sunday behind the cold front.
The timing for storms in our area should improve over the next 24 hours, and we should be able to hone in on better storm timing by tomorrow. We’ll keep you updated.
