Friday AM: Smoke and the weekend severe weather potential

2:30 PM Friday: Confidence in severe weather impacting eastern Ohio on Saturday afternoon and evening has increased. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has raised parts of northeast Ohio to a Level 3 (on a scale of 1-5) Enhanced Risk as of their Friday afternoon update at 2:00 PM. Additional changes to the forecast on Saturday are likely going forward.

While dry weather continues today, Canadian wildfire smoke aloft will settle over the region, resulting in air quality impacts again today. The worst conditions will occur during the morning hours with gradual improvements through the afternoon and evening. Still, it will generally be a gray day, much like yesterday.

The arrival of the next weather system should help wash out some of the smoke overnight into Saturday morning. A warm front will lift through the region with this system tonight, and upper-level flow will become more southwesterly. In addition, any precipitation will help improve local air quality.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the Tuscarawas Valley this evening and tonight with the previously mentioned warm front. Current forecast models indicate that storms/showers will be scattered about, so whether your neighborhood gets any activity will be the luck of the draw.

Any thunderstorms this evening and tonight will likely be garden-variety summertime storms. No severe storms are expected in and around our area. The stronger stuff should keep well off to our southwest.

Shower/storm activity should be east of the area by mid-morning on Saturday. MOST of Saturday afternoon looks dry, but a second opportunity for a stronger line of thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of a cold front Saturday evening into Saturday night.

These will run into conditions more favorable for organized thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out given the amount of upper-level shear that some of the models indicate.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in the standard Level 2, Slight Risk category for severe storms. And, as of around 2:00 PM Friday, areas in northeast Ohio from around US-30 north have been upgraded to a Level 3 severe risk. (Look for the Level 3 area to expand farther south and west in future SPC updates.)

The biggest concern is the elevated risk of damaging wind gusts highlighted by the SPC. Storms will have abundant moisture to work with as well, so some could bring heavy rainfall. (I suspect the SPC may increase the risk to a Level 3 for all or part of eastern Ohio in future updates later today or tonight.)

Limiting factors will include the amount of wildfire smoke as well as any previous storms/precipitation earlier in the day. Either of these could lessen instability enough to temper the severe potential as the front approaches and crosses the area.

Storms/showers should exit southeast of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Fair weather is then likely on Sunday and Monday, along with cooler temperatures and lower dew points. A reinforcing cold front will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the region Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will actually be below average for much of next week, and we may even see a few nights with lows in the 50s. I’m sure that’s welcome news for more than just a few folks.

Thanks for taking a few minutes to catch up with our local weather with TUSCWeather. We’ll have fresh updates posted through the weekend to keep you informed. Have a great Friday!

+21

0