Posted Sunday, March 7, 2021
To be completely hones, this will be an easy forecast to put together. We will finally break out of the cool weather pattern we’ve found ourselves stuck in this past week. Today (Sunday) will be the coolest day of the week – and possibly the coolest day for quite some time.
After another chilly night tonight, high pressure over Ontario this Sunday morning will shift south to the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. Warm southerly air will begin to move into east-central Ohio Monday afternoon behind a warm front that lifts through the region early Monday. Temperatures around our local area will end up being 15° or better than today. Locations around the Valley will top out in the upper-50s.
Highs locally on Tuesday will likely climb to 60°-ish Tuesday. It will be a cloudier day, however. A cold front will attempt to move south from Canada but it will stall over Lake Erie. With the front nearby, all we will notice are clouds. The warmest day this week in the Valley will probably be Wednesday with most locations reaching the mid-60s for the afternoon high.
LATE WEEK AND BEYOND
An upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes region Thursday/Friday and force low pressure and a cold front through northwest to southeast Ohio early Friday. This system will push abundant moisture into east-central Ohio out ahead of the front which will be quite evident by rising dewpoints on Thursday. It will feel a bit humid in the Valley.
Expect increasing clouds on Wednesday night as the system advances eastward along with chances for rain showers. Rain will become likely Thursday and Thursday night. We should see decreasing rain chances Friday morning before the system clears out Friday afternoon.
The models vary quite a bit in how they handle the speed of this system and rain amounts locally will be dependent on how quickly the whole thing moves through. A slower system would mean heavier rain amounts. For now, I’ll split the difference in the forecast but keep the potential for heavier rainfall. With dry weather expected through much of the week, the threat of flooding looks minor.
High pressure will return to the region by Saturday to dry things out. Temperatures will remain quite warm on Thursday and Friday ahead of the cold front. We will see a return to temperatures more in line with climate averages by Friday.
And, just as one would expect in March, this week’s warmth is temporary. Still, most locations on Friday will see highs in the upper-50s. I would expect to see temperatures around average remaining in place through the weekend. The average temperature in the Valley for this time period is around 50°.
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