First Snow Event of the Season Tonight?

Happy Halloween!

There is a nasty rumor going around about the possibility of snow coming to the Valley so I thought I would take a look at what we might expect locally. It is true that a potent low pressure system will move south and east out of Wisconsin and bring a potential for snow to some parts of the Valley late tonight into Wednesday morning. It isn’t unusual for us to see the first snowflakes of the season in November but if this pans out, it will be unusual this early in the month.

Tonight’s snow will probably not impact the morning commute to work and school. The ground, and especially our highways and roads, are still fairly warm so I wouldn’t expect much more than wet travel conditions – That is unless you have to travel into the eastern snowbelt areas of Ohio in the morning.

There will be two opportunities for snowfall tonight here in the Valley. The first event will be non-lake effect snow and give our area the best odds of seeing snowfall. The second part will be lake effect snowfall that will bring additional snowfall to those areas in the primary snowbelt area of Ohio.

It all gets underway around 8:00 pm this evening as moisture moves into northern parts of the Valley tonight. There can be a brief period of some sleet mixing in with rain as this first push of moisture begins especially in areas like Bolivar and Zoar. However, areas in our western communities will start to see some legitimate snow moving into the area around 10/11 tonight. This band will push east through the Valley by midnight. This looks like a pretty quick burst of snow.

Here is a look at how the short-term hi-res model handles things tonight through 4:00 am:

Any snow that pushes in after this first burst of snowfall will be from lake effect. The snow will be fairly spotty from this second event and shouldn’t amount to much in our area. Much of this will melt on contact with the ground. Temperatures locally will be just below freezing so we could see a coating of snow on our fields and lawns as you head out in the morning.

Total snowfall from this system shouldn’t amount to much. Some spots in the northern part of the Valley could end up with 1/2-inch. Those in the southern part might get a dusting.

Total snowfall tonight through 8:00 am Wednesday according to the NAM3k model.

As for temperatures, we will remain chilly through the remainder of the work week but warm up a bit over the weekend before another cold spell moves in next week.

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