Winter 2023/24 Outlook for the Tuscarawas Valley

November 12, 2023

Well, here we are, folks. Another winter season is about to get underway here in the Tuscarawas Valley. It’s time to take a look to see what might be in store for our area during the upcoming winter.

First, though, some ground rules. Seasonal outlooks are quite a bit different than daily and weekly weather forecasts. The focus is not so much on individual days or even weeks. Seasonal forecasts are more about months and even several months as a whole. In other words, we’re talking more about generalities here and not specific weather events.

Another rule to keep in mind is that this outlook covers the months of December, January, and February – the three months of the year that make up meteorological winter. I’m well aware we sometimes get winter weather here from November through April, but those months aren’t a part of this outlook.

The winter season overall in the Tuscarawas Valley region has been relatively mild for several years. That trend looks to continue into the 2023 – 24 season. The largest influence in this upcoming winter will be El Nino – the warm ocean waters in the South Pacific. NOAA is predicting a very strong or even a Super El Nino this winter season.

Normally, a strong El Nino correlates to warmer temperatures and dryer conditions in our area of the country. Strong El Nino winters also favor keeping impactful storms much further south of our region than weak or non-El Nino years.

WINTER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
As I mentioned earlier, strong El Ninos typically translate to warmer-than-average winter temperatures. That basically means that there is higher confidence in forecasting a warmer-than-normal winter for our area as a whole.

That doesn’t mean we won’t see some bitter and blustery days. It’s winter. We will. But the overall pattern for the whole of winter in one chunk looks to be slightly warmer than an average winter.

So, what is normal?

When we talk about weather we like to use the word average rather than normal. We can actually record the high temperature and low temperature for each day of the month and average all those numbers out. This gives us a real figure to work with. The chart below shows the average temperature as measured at the New Philadelphia airport for the year.

Using the figures above our average winter temperature as a whole at New Phila is 31°. Here’s how that plots on a chart covering the winter season since 2000:

As plotted above, over half of the winters in our area over the last 22 years have been at or warmer than average.

WINTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Again, winters in strong El Nino years trend dryer in our area. During the winter season we, of course, have two main precipitation types to deal with – rain and snow. The precip type for any given winter period is very much dependent on air and ground temperature. Generally speaking, given the likelihood of a warmer-than-average temperature this can also mean less snow than average.

Fortunately, we don’t get quite as much snow at our location compared to areas just a few miles to the north. In any given winter, we can expect less than 10 inches of seasonal snowfall during the season. Occasionally we get whacked by a storm that dumps a lot of snow but for the most part, 10 or so inches of snow is a lot less than what northern and northeastern parts of the state can look forward to.

Snowfall is an important concern in the wintertime. Typically, February is the month when our area realizes the most snow on average. I think that’s going to be particularly true this winter.

With mild temperatures expected in December, I wouldn’t count on much snow. As El Nino weakens late January into February we can expect to see an uptick in colder temperatures AND snow events during the second half of the season. As a result, total snow in our region is likely to be more than last year but still slightly below average for the season.

WINTER OUTLOOK AT A GLANCE

• Mild to warm December likely
• Turning colder January/February with a higher potential for impactful snow events
• More snow than last winter but still less than average for the season

Seasonal outlooks like this present a challenge. While one can spend countless hours pouring over data and listening to advice from more experienced people working in the field, it only takes one good storm to really mess things up.

That’s a wrap. Thanks for reading my winter outlook and relying on TUSCWeather for your local weather info. If you like TUSCWeather please consider installing the app and telling your friends about it. Your support is much appreciated.

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