Beryl Will Bring Beneficial Rain to the Tuscarawas Valley

07/09/2024 10:00 am

While officially the Tuscarawas Valley area is not in a drought, we have been running a deficit thanks to the dry conditions we experienced last month. Officially, Tuscarawas County is classified as Abnormally Dry. That’s likely to improve over the next few days.

Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas Monday morning. The current projections from the National Hurricane Center forecast a track of the system to eventually make its way into the Upper Great Lakes region by Wednesday. The current expected path of the low pressure remnants of Beryl will spread rain into eastern Ohio tonight through Wednesday.

We can expect cirrus clouds to increase late in the afternoon as upper-level moisture begins to move into east-central Ohio ahead of remnant low pressure from Beryl. As moisture increases so will cloud cover. Eventually rain from the system will spread into our area late tonight.

Temperatures overnight will remain in the low 70s due to the cloud cover. Dewpoints will also remain elevated and can even increase a couple of degrees. It’ll be a warm and uncomfortably muggy night.

The current projected path of the system keeps the center of low pressure west and north of our area as it travels across into Lake Erie and onto Lake Ontario. Should this current projected path hold, our area will be spared the heaviest rainfall and severe thunderstorm potential that accompanies landfalling tropical systems.

The highest rain amounts from Beryl will fall well off to our west and north. We will end up getting some rain from the system but it is rain we do need and in values that should not bring any high water concerns to our area.

The exact track of the central low pressure area is still not set in stone as far as the morning model runs go. There remains enough wiggle room that will play a role in the potential of any severe weather that could impact our area. The primary concern is how Beryl remnants will interact with a warm front ahead of the low pressure center. This warm front will approach our area late tonight into the early morning hours on Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a low-end risk (Level 1) of severe thunderstorms in our area mainly for early Wednesday morning because of this uncertainty in the exact track of Beryl. Note that the risk is for the pre-dawn through 8:00/9:00 AM period on Wednesday morning.

A strong thunderstorm with damaging straight-line wind is the main concern but there can be an isolated tornado or two as well. The threat for either is low but not zero. The bottom line is that a gusty strong to severe storm may move through early Wednesday morning that could contain damaging wind and/or an isolated tornado. Again, it’s a pretty low chance but the risk is there nonetheless. Little variation in the track of the low will influence how this plays out eventually and I’ll watch the SPC updates closely as the various models come into better agreement.

As Beryl continues its track east it will drag a cold front through eastern Ohio sometime Wednesday afternoon. Once the cold front swings through the threat for any severe storms here will shut down fairly quickly. We’ll likely see some rain locally through the afternoon. Still, precipitation chances will gradually diminish into the evening and overnight Wednesday night.

Locally, rain totals look to run around a quarter to a half-inch. Most of that will come tonight into Wednesday morning. Because the remnant center of low pressure passes mainly west and north of the region, rainfall amounts are likely to vary depending on your location. Northern locations such as Bolivar, Strasburg, Mineral City, etc could see amounts toward the higher end. Locations south – Newcomerstown, Gnadenhutten, Port Washington, etc should expect amounts toward the lower end. As I detailed above, a strong storm is possible early in the morning. Any location could get a heavy downpour.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
We will get a short break in the heat and humidity on Thursday behind that cold front with afternoon high temperatures in the low-80s. There can be a shower at some point but the odds are higher we stay dry under a mix of clouds and sun. Full sun and warmer temperatures will return on Friday. So far the weekend is shaping up to be hot and sunny with afternoon temperatures around 90°.

Thanks for hanging with TUSCWeather and keeping up with my take on our local weather. I’ll post any needed changes concerning the severe threat tonight and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, have a dependable way to get warnings tonight should any be issued for our area. Bye for now.

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